Nylon DTY Price Nears Midpoint: Raw Material Costs vs. End-Use Demand Intensify

The benchmark price of nylon DTY settled at 15,840 CNY/ton at the start of July, down 4.81% from a month earlier. This decline is not an isolated event but a snapshot of a volatile 12-month cycle: from July 2025 to July 2026, the price swung between a low of 13,560 CNY/ton and a high of 18,960 CNY/ton, a range of nearly 40%. The current price sits just below the midpoint of 16,260 CNY/ton, suggesting a fragile equilibrium—neither panic selling nor a strong rebound.

Cost Side: Caprolactam Support Narrows

Nylon DTY’s direct upstream feedstock, caprolactam, has been declining since Q2, directly weakening cost support for nylon filament yarn. Industry data shows the average caprolactam price in East China fell about 3% month-on-month in June, roughly in sync with the drop in nylon DTY. This means processing margins for chemical fiber mills haven’t expanded significantly despite cheaper raw materials; instead, they face the twin pressures of end-user price cuts and raw material inventory depreciation. For nylon clusters in Shengze and Changle, price volatility has already forced some small-to-medium texturing mills to adopt a “produce-to-order” strategy, actively reducing finished goods inventory days.

Supply and Demand: Weaving Utilization and Order Divergence

On the demand side, circular knitting and warp knitting utilization rates diverged regionally in June. Warp knitting mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, supported by orders for outdoor sportswear and home textiles, maintained utilization around 70%; while circular knitting mills in Fujian, hit by weak demand for conventional fabrics, saw utilization drop below 60%. This divergence directly affects nylon DTY buying patterns: inquiries for mid-to-high-end differentiated products (e.g., dull yarn, high-elastic yarn) are relatively active, while standard specifications face a “price without volume” stalemate. Notably, the current price of 15,840 CNY/ton, though at the midpoint, is only 2,280 CNY above the year’s low. If demand weakens further, the price may test support at 14,000 CNY/ton.

Inventory and Expectations: Trader Caution Runs High

Over the past month, social inventory of nylon DTY has shown a pattern of “mills destocking, traders restocking.” Upstream polymerization and spinning plants reduced their own inventories through production cuts and maintenance, but intermediate traders, bearish on the outlook, have been reluctant to replenish, causing some cargo to accumulate at ports and warehouses. This structural mismatch means that if demand improves marginally, traders’ restocking could quickly push prices higher; conversely, if end-use consumption remains sluggish, trader destocking pressure will cap any rebound. The annual statistics show the current price is about 5% above the average of 15,032 CNY/ton, but still far below the H1 peak, indicating the market has yet to form a clear directional consensus.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - With the price at a midpoint, adopt a “staggered price-locking” approach instead of one large order to reduce single-point risk. - Monitor caprolactam weekly settlement prices closely; if feedstock continues to fall, wait for the 14,000-15,000 CNY/ton range to replenish. - Prioritize differentiated specifications (e.g., dull yarn, cationic modified) to avoid commodity price competition.

For Mills - Keep finished goods inventory of standard nylon DTY at 15-20 days to minimize capital tie-up. - Use the current raw material price window to sign short-term floating-price contracts with caprolactam suppliers to hedge cost volatility. - Strengthen order coordination with warp and circular knitting customers, adjusting production plans dynamically based on utilization data.