At 13,650 yuan per ton as of July 1, the benchmark price of nylon POY has dropped 5.86% from the beginning of the month, settling exactly at the median of its one-year price range. This level is neither the low of 11,300 yuan nor the peak of 16,950 yuan, but industry insiders are already sensing a supply-demand imbalance.
Supply-Demand Logic Behind the Median Price
According to annual statistics, the average price of nylon POY over the past year was 12,785.25 yuan per ton. The current price is about 6.8% higher than the average, indicating some premium. However, zero daily change and the breach of the annual median of 14,125 yuan suggest a lack of upward momentum. The top deviation of 3,300 yuan versus a bottom deviation of only 2,350 yuan means the downside risk far exceeds the upside potential, with bearish sentiment spreading.
The price decline is driven by dual pressures from raw materials and end demand. Caprolactam, the direct raw material for nylon POY, has seen accelerated capacity release in the second quarter, leading to looser supply and weaker cost support. Meanwhile, downstream weaving mills are operating at around 70% capacity, placing small and short-term orders while adopting a wait-and-see approach to raw material procurement.
Inventory Pressure and Foreign Trade Headwinds
In key weaving clusters such as Changle in Fujian, Shengze in Jiangsu, and Xiaoshan in Zhejiang, nylon POY inventory turnover days have noticeably lengthened. Some small and medium-sized spinning mills have proactively reduced output to stabilize prices, but with limited effect. On the foreign trade front, demand for nylon products in Southeast Asia has slowed, and orders from Europe and the U.S. are delayed due to unstable shipping schedules, further complicating domestic inventory digestion.
Notably, although the current price is at the median, the probability of falling below 12,000 yuan per ton is rising if demand continues to weaken. Historical data show that when nylon POY prices approach 11,000 yuan per ton, weaving mills' restocking willingness increases significantly, forming a temporary bottom.
Cost Game and Procurement Window
For fabric buyers, the current price is not an absolute low but has entered a deployable range. Considering that caprolactam prices may still decline and the third quarter is traditionally a low season, prices could continue to test lower levels. However, once downstream autumn and winter fabric preparation begins, concentrated demand may trigger a rebound.
For Buyers - Adopt a phased purchasing strategy, with initial orders capped at 30% of monthly consumption to avoid single-direction price drops - Monitor caprolactam prices closely; increase procurement ratio when it falls below 12,000 yuan per ton - Negotiate floating price agreements with suppliers to lock in basis and reduce spot volatility impact
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Offer tiered pricing strategies to Southeast Asian clients, using the current median price as a reference point with price protection clauses - Monitor the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on export competitiveness and adjust quotation validity periods accordingly - Utilize futures or forward contracts to hedge against order default risks caused by raw material price declines
Conclusion
The median price of nylon POY essentially reflects a mismatch between the industry's capacity cycle and demand cycle. In the short term, the tug-of-war between cost and inventory will persist, with prices likely oscillating in the 12,500-14,000 yuan per ton range. For all players in the supply chain, flexible procurement and risk hedging capabilities will become key competitive factors in the second half of the year.