The Strait of Hormuz, a maritime artery carrying nearly 30% of global crude oil, is poised to resume operations after a 100-day shutdown. For China's textile industry, this signals a systemic relief from months of high raw material costs, logistics delays, and order hesitancy. However, the benefits will be gradual, not instantaneous.
The Root of Cost Pressure Is Loosening
During the shutdown, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope extended Far East voyages by about 15 days, tripled war risk insurance premiums, and pushed daily demurrage for some vessels above $100,000. These costs cascaded into the polyester chain, keeping production costs for PTA, MEG, and PX at near five-year highs for three consecutive months. Following the resumption, international crude oil futures have already fallen for multiple days, and several energy agencies have lowered their average price forecasts for the second half of the year. However, it is crucial to note that the price transmission from crude to PX and then to PTA involves a 4-6 week lag. Raw material prices will decline steadily and in a stepwise manner, not in the sudden crash some market rumors suggest.
Logistics Efficiency Improves, Inventory Pressure Eases
Hundreds of cargo ships previously stranded around the strait will be gradually diverted, restoring raw material import transit times to pre-shutdown levels and boosting restocking efficiency by about 40%. For textile companies heavily reliant on petrochemical imports from the Middle East, this logistics recovery directly alleviates raw material inventory shortages. Over the past 100 days, delays and low port inventories forced many chemical fiber plants into a passive stance of scrambling for materials, waiting for shipments, and absorbing cost hikes. The resumption eliminates the need for panic buying at high prices to keep production lines running, preventing shutdowns or output cuts caused by supply disruptions.
Market Confidence Rebounds, but Pace Must Be Measured
The extreme uncertainty during the shutdown drove the entire industry into a conservative strategy of low inventory and cautious order-taking, slowing market circulation by about 30% year-on-year. The confirmed resumption removes the extreme supply disruption risk. Upstream chemical fiber plants show increased restocking willingness, midstream fabric mills accelerate order turnover, and downstream exporters regain confidence in taking orders. However, industry players should note that while lower shipping costs can reduce export logistics expenses and widen pricing flexibility by 2-3 percentage points, global order competition remains fierce. Cost advantages must translate into product value to secure actual orders.
Industry Impact: From Passive Defense to Active Adjustment
The triple benefits of lower raw material costs, improved logistics, and renewed market confidence will unfold along the supply chain. For small and medium-sized textile mills, this window allows optimization of previously inflated inventory levels, refined production cost control, and a focus on capturing autumn/winter and export orders in the second half. For leading enterprises, the stabilized supply chain presents an opportunity to restructure global raw material sourcing, diversify regional supply buffers, and enhance overall risk resilience.