The July 1 market data from Shengze and Jiaxing reveals a key signal: the polyester filament yarn market is shifting from 'firm quotes' to 'negotiated deals.' This change is not a broad price cut but a structural divergence. POY bulk transactions have nearly vanished; some FDY specifications are benefiting from seasonal demand, while DTY inventories are piling up. This 'hot and cold' pattern reflects a new phase of negotiation along the textile supply chain.
Polyester Yarn Market: Undercurrents Beneath Stable Quotes
While overall polyester yarn quotes remain stable, small-lot transactions increasingly rely on bilateral negotiation, especially for POY grades. Draw-texturing mills are only buying small quantities of POY 75D/72F, while POY for intermingling is nearly ignored. On the FDY side, 50D/48F and 50D/72F are selling well, driven by the seasonal production peak for high-density taffeta. FDY 75D/36F, used for false-twist yarn, has seen a notable pickup in procurement, with quotes stable at RMB 8,550-8,650/ton. Fully dull FDY remains balanced due to equipment constraints, with 66D/48F partly used for water-jet fully dull taffeta and partly for air-textured yarn.
DTY divergence is more pronounced: fine-denier varieties like 50D/72F, 75D/72F, 75D/144F, 120D/192F, 150D/96F, and 150D/288F continue to ship, but mainstream 100D/48F is sluggish, with inventories rising. DTY 150D/144F from Changxing is quoted at RMB 9,230-9,300/ton, but actual deals may be lower. This 'fine sells, coarse stalls' pattern directly reflects end-fabric demand shifting toward lightweight, high-density products, while demand for conventional medium-weight fabrics is contracting.
Yarn Market: Localized Sales Amid General Caution
Cotton yarn prices are firm, with 32s sales rising slightly, mainly for luxury brocade fabrics. Polyester-cotton blended yarn prices are stable with minor adjustments, while polyester-viscose yarn shows little change, indicating lackluster demand for blends. Rayon yarn prices are stable, but 10s and 30s see localized sales for air-jet diamond cotton fabrics. Viscose staple fiber remains stable at around RMB 14,200/ton, providing a cost anchor for downstream.
Pure polyester yarn prices are temporarily stable, with 45s selling significantly better than other specs, at a center price of around RMB 15,300/ton. However, upstream polyester staple fiber prices are weakening, with 1.56*38mm cotton-type quoted at around RMB 7,700/ton. This suggests that cost support for pure polyester yarn is weakening, making a sideways or slightly lower trend likely.
Industry Impact: Inventory Pressure vs. Cost Pass-Through
Major polyester plants are facing growing inventory pressure, while raw material cost support is weakening. Weaving mills, draw-texturing mills, and traders remain cautious, adopting a 'buy-as-you-use' approach, resulting in insufficient purchasing power. Most polyester plants are struggling to maintain sales. In the short term, polyester yarn will continue its adjustment, with price cuts for slow-moving items almost inevitable.
For downstream fabric buyers, this presents both opportunities and challenges. The opportunity lies in potential price concessions if inventory pressure builds further, especially for POY and conventional DTY. The challenge is that some FDY specs still have seasonal support, limiting bargaining room. Buyers should target varieties with the most pricing flexibility based on their product mix.