Demand weakness at the weaving end is transmitting upstream along the supply chain, pushing the Shengze polyester filament yarn market into a typical wait-and-see stalemate in early July. On July 1, major polyester plants kept their official quotes broadly stable, but small-lot transactions have fully shifted to case-by-case negotiation, implying an invisible price gap between listed and actual transaction prices.
Dual Weakness in Volume and Price: Hidden Loosening Under Stable Quotes
Public data shows that on July 1, the ex-factory prices of FDY, POY, and DTY in the Shengze market remained unchanged from June 30. For example, FDY 50D/24F from Xiaoshan Rongsheng, Taicang Shenjiu, and Shenghong Chemical Fiber all stayed at 9,300-9,400 yuan/ton. The full-matte series, such as Zhongliu Technology's 40D/48F at 12,100 yuan/ton, also showed zero movement. On the surface, prices appear firm, but industry data reveals that actual transactions can no longer execute at listed prices, with buyers and sellers engaging in more flexible price negotiations.
The POY category is particularly subdued, with bulk orders almost nonexistent. DTY transactions are uneven, reflecting divergent expectations among downstream texturing and weaving mills. This pattern of "stable quotes but weak trading" represents a compromise between upstream plants' inventory pressure and their desire to hold prices—they are neither willing to cut prices proactively and trigger market panic, nor able to resist downstream pressure for discounts.
Dual Squeeze: Rising Inventory and Weakening Cost Support
The core contradiction in the current market is the continuous buildup of inventory at polyester plants. Days of inventory for major mills are approaching warning levels, while downstream purchasing strategies have become increasingly conservative. Weaving and texturing mills have adopted a just-in-time production model, with their willingness to stockpile raw materials falling to freezing point. Trader-level speculative buying has virtually disappeared.
At the same time, cost-side support is weakening. PTA and MEG prices lack clear direction, depriving polyester plants of the basis for cost-push price increases. In this vacuum where costs are not rising and demand is not strong, inventory pressure becomes the key variable determining price direction. For slow-moving items, especially conventional specifications such as FDY 150D/96F (Shaoxing Tiansheng at 8,300 yuan/ton) and 135D/36F (Tongkun at 8,300 yuan/ton), the risk of price cuts is rising.
Industrial Belt Reactions and Upstream-Downstream Transmission
As one of China's largest polyester filament yarn distribution hubs, Shengze's market trends serve as a bellwether for the entire Jiangsu-Zhejiang chemical fiber market. Across major producing areas—Wujiang, Tongxiang, Xiaoshan, and Shaoxing—the same pattern of converging quotes and weak trading is evident, indicating that this is not a single plant's sales problem but an industry-wide demand ebb.
Downstream weaving mill operating rates are under pressure during the traditional off-season, with insufficient orders for water-jet and air-jet looms directly suppressing raw material procurement. Texturing mills are also facing their own DTY inventory buildup, naturally reducing demand for POY. Once this chain of "inventory transfer from upstream to downstream" breaks, polyester plants will be forced to bear greater inventory risk.
Short-Term Outlook: Adjustment Dominates, Divergence Intensifies
In summary, the polyester filament yarn market is likely to continue its adjustment phase over the next 1-2 weeks. Major plants will prioritize maintaining sales volumes, and price negotiations will further tilt in favor of buyers. Different product categories will show divergence:
- Conventional FDY items (e.g., 150D/96F, 200D/96F) face the most intense price competition due to high homogeneity and may see the first reductions.
- Higher-spec DTY items (e.g., 75D/36F) have relatively stronger price support from mills, as texturing margins are limited.
- POY, as an intermediate product, faces the greatest trading difficulty due to low operating rates at downstream texturing mills.
For buyers, the current period is not an optimal restocking window. Until inventory pressure eases significantly, prices still have room to fall. It is advisable to maintain a just-in-time purchasing approach and avoid passive stockpiling driven by bargain-hunting sentiment.