Shengze Yarn Market Diverges: Cotton Yarns Firm, Polyester Stable, Buyers Eye Raw Material Turning Points

On July 1, the Shengze yarn market sent a clear signal of product divergence: cotton yarn prices firmed, with some specifications even showing a slight uptick, while polyester yarns stabilized but faced weakening upstream polyester staple fiber. This 'cotton strong, polyester weak' pattern is reshaping cost expectations and restocking rhythms for downstream fabric buyers.

Product Divergence: Niche Demand for Cotton and Rayon Yarns

Cotton yarn 32S is the most noteworthy variety in this round. According to publicly available industry data, sales of this specification saw a modest increase, primarily destined for local weaving mills producing 'rich brocade' fabric. As a classic autumn/winter women's apparel fabric, order recovery in rich brocade often signals that downstream garment brands are preparing for the seasonal change. Meanwhile, rayon yarns 10S and 30S also saw niche demand, mainly for air-jet diamond cotton fabric—a common material in home textiles and casual wear.

Viscose staple fiber prices remain stable at around 14,200 RMB/ton, providing cost support for rayon yarns. However, it's noteworthy that higher-count rayon yarns (40S and above, such as 40S/2 and 50S) saw no price movement, indicating that demand is concentrated in low-count yarns, while high-count yarn demand has yet to be activated. This 'low-count active, high-count quiet' structure suggests that end orders are still dominated by mass-market, quick-turn categories.

Polyester Yarn: 45S Stands Out, but Raw Material Signals Caution

Overall polyester yarn prices remained stable, but internal divergence persists. The 45S specification, currently with a center price of 15,300 RMB/ton, enjoys significantly higher sales than 21S and 32S. 45S polyester yarn is commonly used in taffeta, pongee, and other standard linings and lightweight fabrics; its popularity may be linked to concentrated delivery of summer sun-protective wear and lightweight jackets.

However, upstream polyester staple fiber (1.56*38mm cotton type) has fallen to around 7,700 RMB/ton and is in a 'weak adjustment' phase. Polyester staple fiber prices typically lead polyester yarn by one to two weeks. If the raw material continues to weaken, the current consolidation pattern for polyester yarn may break, and downward price pressure will gradually accumulate. For weaving mills that have taken orders but not yet locked in raw materials, this presents both an opportunity for cost optimization and an expectation from customers for price reductions.

Blended Yarns: Static Prices Mask Underlying Supply-Demand Tug-of-War

All specifications of polyester-cotton and polyester-viscose yarns remained flat, with no change from June 30. This 'frozen' state does not indicate market equilibrium but rather a wait-and-see stance from both upstream and downstream. Polyester-cotton T65/C35 32S is quoted at 16,300 RMB/ton, while polyester-viscose T65/R35 32S is at 14,200 RMB/ton—a spread exceeding 2,000 RMB/ton, reflecting the persistent cost difference between viscose staple fiber and cotton.

For buyers, static blended yarn prices mean fabric costs will not be affected by the yarn segment in the short term. However, caution is warranted: once polyester staple fiber or viscose staple fiber shows a directional move, blended yarns will transmit price changes faster than pure varieties, as their profit margins are thinner.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Cotton yarn 32S and 40S are currently at mid-range prices for the year. Given the recovery in rich brocade and similar varieties, consider increasing safety stock by one to two weeks to avoid chasing prices during peak season. - For polyester yarn 45S, despite good sales, the upstream polyester staple fiber is weak. Adopt a 'small orders, fast procurement' strategy, covering two to three days of usage per purchase, and avoid stockpiling. - Rayon yarn 10S and 30S are moving but not yet rising in price—this is a window to lock in current prices. Higher-count rayon yarns (40S and above) can be kept on hold.

For Exporters - European and American markets are tightening traceability requirements for cotton fabrics. Cotton yarn 32S sourced from Jiangsu and similar regions offers better traceability, which can be used as a premium justification in quotations. - Polyester-cotton blended fabrics (T65/C35) have stable demand in Southeast Asian and African markets. Current price stability is favorable for locking in raw material costs for forward orders. - Monitor polyester staple fiber prices closely. If the 7,700 RMB/ton quote further declines to below 7,500 RMB/ton, proactively negotiate price adjustment mechanisms with polyester yarn suppliers.