The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy trade, is entering its final preparation phase for reopening after a shipping disruption lasting over 100 days. This waterway, which handles nearly 30% of the world's crude oil and one-fifth of its liquefied natural gas, once operational, will directly reverse the tight global supply chain and high maritime costs seen in recent months. For China's textile industry, this is not a distant macro-level good news but a tangible relief signal across the entire chain—from raw material procurement and logistics to cost control.
100-Day Disruption: Chemical Fiber Costs Driven to Multi-Year Highs
During the strait's closure, hundreds of tankers carrying Middle Eastern crude and petrochemical intermediates were forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, extending the Far East voyage from the usual 20 days to over 35 days. This lengthened journey not only increased fuel consumption and crew costs but also tripled war risk insurance premiums for Middle Eastern routes, with demurrage charges for some vessels exceeding $100,000 per day. These costs cascaded down the supply chain from crude oil to PX, PTA, and MEG—the core chemical fiber raw materials for textiles. According to China Customs data, international crude oil prices remained high and volatile during the 100-plus-day closure, combined with delayed raw material arrivals and declining port inventories, pushing production costs in the domestic polyester chain to a five-year high for three consecutive months. Many chemical fiber plants faced a passive cycle of scrambling for raw materials, waiting for shipments, and absorbing cost increases, with inventory turnover rates for small and medium enterprises dropping nearly 30% compared to the same period last year.
Triple Benefits Post-Resumption: Cost, Logistics, and Market Confidence
As the countdown to resumption begins, multiple suppressed benefits will unfold along the industrial chain. On the raw material side, the tight global crude supply-demand balance will ease quickly. International crude oil futures have already reacted, with Brent and WTI crude falling for consecutive days, and major energy agencies have lowered their average price forecasts for the second half of 2026. However, it's important to note a 4-to-6-week lag in transmission from crude price declines to downstream textile fabric costs, meaning chemical fiber raw material prices will trend downward steadily and in steps, not in a sudden crash. On the logistics side, the extended routes and high insurance premiums from the Cape of Good Hope detour will be directly eliminated. Hundreds of vessels stranded near the strait will be redirected, restoring raw material import shipping times to pre-closure levels, boosting enterprise restocking efficiency by approximately 40%. Falling shipping costs will also directly reduce export logistics expenses for finished fabrics, widening the pricing space for foreign trade companies by 2 to 3 percentage points. On the market side, the extreme uncertainty of the past 100 days led the entire industry to adopt a conservative strategy of low inventories and cautious order-taking. With the certainty of resumption, upstream chemical fiber plants are showing stronger restocking intentions, midstream fabric mills are seeing faster order turnover, and downstream foreign trade firms are gradually regaining confidence in taking orders. The entire textile chain's production-sales cycle is expected to return to a healthy rhythm.