Down Trade Divergence: Import Growth Far Outpaces Exports, Domestic Upgrades Drive Raw Material Price Surge

The down industry is witnessing a rare divergence between exports and imports. In the first five months of 2026, total export value dropped 14.2% year-on-year, while imports surged 46.5%. May alone saw import growth of 66.0%, driven by high international raw material prices and domestic consumption upgrades, directly impacting procurement strategies and product pricing.

Export Pressure: External Cycles and Structural Adjustments

From January to May, down exports totaled approximately $650 million, down 14.2% YoY. The decline widened compared to the first four months, indicating that overseas demand contraction has not bottomed out. While the main causes are consumption cycle downturns and shifting global demand, the industry's fundamentals remain intact—companies are countering external pressures through product iteration and category optimization. For export-oriented factories, the immediate risk is order shrinkage, but opportunities exist in emerging markets like Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Import Surge: Raw Material Prices Soar and High-End Consumption Awakens

In stark contrast, imports are booming. Cumulative imports in Jan-May reached $350 million, with growth accelerating from 41.0% in Jan-Apr to 46.5%. May alone hit $87.09 million, with growth jumping from 15.2% in April to 66.0%.

Raw down is the core driver: imports of raw down totaled 15,000 tons, up 13.1% in volume, but the import value reached $170 million, skyrocketing 70.3%. In May, the import value surged 118.6%, far exceeding the 9.5% volume growth. This indicates a sharp rise in unit prices for premium international down, driven by tight global supply and increased procurement by domestic brands.

Down garment imports also grew strongly: cumulative imports of 2.017 million pieces, with value up 29.9%; May saw volume and value growth of 39.9% and 41.8%, respectively. This reflects rising domestic demand for high-end imported down apparel, mirroring the weakness in exports.

Industry Impact: Cost Transmission and Procurement Adjustments

High raw material prices will directly affect downstream garment manufacturing. Processors relying on imported raw down may face cost pressures intensifying in H2 2026. Meanwhile, domestic down-product brands face a dilemma: using domestic raw materials may fail to meet consumer demand for high fill power and cleanliness, while increasing imported raw material procurement incurs higher costs and exchange rate risks.

In key industrial clusters such as Xiaoshan (Zhejiang) and Lu'an (Anhui), processing companies are adjusting their procurement structures—some have increased negotiation frequency with suppliers from Eastern Europe and Hungary. Garment production hubs like Nantong and Changshu are closely monitoring the penetration of imported finished garments into the domestic mid-to-high-end market.

Practical Recommendations

For Procurement Teams - Secure long-term contracts: Given high international raw down prices and tight supply, consider signing quarterly or semi-annual framework agreements with reputable overseas suppliers to lock in price ranges. - Evaluate alternative materials: Assess the cost-performance trade-off between domestic high-fill-power duck down and imported goose down, adjusting procurement lists accordingly while maintaining quality. - Diversify sourcing: In addition to traditional Polish and Hungarian origins, explore emerging regions like Romania and Bulgaria to reduce single-source risk.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Expand into new markets: As traditional European and American markets weaken, focus on Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America, where demand for mid-to-high-end down products is rising. - Increase product value: Differentiate export categories by adding functional down garments, removable liners, etc., to avoid pure price competition. - Optimize cost structure: Leverage the relatively stable domestic raw material prices to switch some export products to domestic premium down, reducing reliance on high-cost imported raw materials.