After more than 100 days of disruption, the Strait of Hormuz is showing clear signs of resumption. This waterway, handling nearly 30% of global crude oil and one-fifth of liquefied natural gas trade, once reopened, will directly impact global energy pricing and logistics. For the textile industry, this is not just international shipping news but a substantive turning point for chemical fiber raw material costs and import-export logistics efficiency.
During the blockade, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope extended Far East shipping by about 15 days, tripled war risk insurance premiums on Middle East routes, and pushed daily demurrage for some vessels above $100,000. These costs weighed heavily on the polyester chain: PX, PTA, and MEG prices stayed at near five-year highs for three consecutive months, forcing polyester mills into a passive cycle of scrambling for materials, waiting for shipments, and facing rising costs.
The Transmission Rhythm of Raw Material Cost Decline
After resumption, crude oil futures have already reacted, with Brent and WTI falling for multiple sessions, and several institutions lowering average crude price forecasts for the second half of 2026. But textile professionals must recognize a 4-6 week lag between crude price drops and their transmission to PX, PTA, MEG, then to polyester chips and fabrics. This means raw material prices will not crash instantly but follow a 'steady decline, stepwise adjustment' trajectory.
For polyester mills, the low port inventory caused by delayed raw material arrivals will gradually ease. Imported material replenishment efficiency can improve by about 40%, fundamentally reducing the risk of production halts due to supply gaps. Meanwhile, falling shipping costs will directly lower export logistics expenses for finished fabrics, expanding foreign trade companies' pricing room by 2-3 percentage points.
The Expected Recovery of Industry Operating Pace
Over the past 100-plus days, supply chain uncertainty drove textile firms to adopt conservative strategies of 'low inventory, cautious orders,' slowing market goods turnover by about 30% compared to the same period last year. With resumption certainty, extreme supply disruption risks are largely eliminated, shifting industry expectations toward positivity: upstream chemical fiber mills' restocking willingness rises, midstream fabric mills' order flow accelerates, and downstream foreign trade companies' confidence in taking orders gradually recovers.
This recovery is not linear. Logistics efficiency gains and cost reductions take time to transmit through the chain, and whether end demand also recovers remains a variable. But at least the cost inversion that plagued the industry for half a year will ease, allowing firms to shift from 'passive defense' to 'active adjustment.'