The Strait of Hormuz, after a disruption lasting over 100 days, has entered the final preparation stage for full resumption. This waterway, handling nearly 30% of global crude oil and one-fifth of LNG trade, once reopened, will directly reverse the tight global energy supply chain. For the textile industry, which relies heavily on petrochemical raw materials, this is not merely a positive signal for international shipping but a full-chain relief from raw material procurement to export logistics. However, the lag in price transmission and divergent market expectations warrant caution.
Raw Material Costs: Phased Decline, Not a Sudden Crash
During the disruption, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope extended Far East shipping by about 15 days, tripled war risk insurance premiums, and pushed daily demurrage fees for some vessels above USD 100,000. These costs directly elevated production expenses across the domestic polyester chain, which remained at near five-year highs for three consecutive months. With the strait resuming, crude oil futures have already reacted, with Brent and WTI posting consecutive daily declines, and multiple energy agencies lowering their average price forecasts for the second half of 2026.
However, the drop in crude oil prices will not immediately translate to lower textile fabric costs. The transmission from crude to PX, PTA, MEG, polyester chips, and finally to greige fabrics requires time for inventory digestion and pricing adjustments. Industry data indicates this transmission cycle typically takes four to six weeks. Therefore, raw material prices will follow a pattern of steady decline and stepwise adjustments, not the instant crash some market rumors suggest. Polyester plants should avoid exacerbating inventory volatility through panic selling or speculative hoarding.
Logistics Efficiency: Shorter Transit Times and Enhanced Export Competitiveness
During the disruption, hundreds of cargo vessels were stranded around the strait, causing raw material arrival delays that forced many polyester plants into a passive cycle of scrambling for supplies, waiting for shipments, and absorbing cost increases. After resumption, the Far East route will return to its normal 20-day transit, boosting raw material replenishment efficiency by approximately 40% and largely eliminating the risk of production halts due to feedstock shortages.
The decline in shipping costs is equally critical. Premiums from rerouting and higher fuel expenses will dissipate quickly, directly lowering export logistics costs for finished fabrics. Industry estimates suggest this could widen export pricing flexibility by 2 to 3 percentage points. For enterprises reliant on imported petrochemical feedstocks from the Middle East, restored logistics efficiency will ease inventory pressure, enabling production without relying on premium-priced spot purchases.
Market Confidence: From Defensive Operations to Active Stocking
Over the past 100-plus days, extreme supply chain uncertainty forced the entire industry into conservative strategies of low inventories and cautious order-taking, slowing market turnover by nearly 30% year-on-year. The certainty of the strait's resumption means the risk of extreme supply disruptions has largely been eliminated. Upstream polyester plants have already shown increased restocking willingness, midstream fabric mills are seeing faster order flow, and downstream trading firms are gradually regaining confidence in accepting new orders.
But this is not a simple V-shaped recovery. The digestion of accumulated port inventories, the actual pace of downstream demand recovery, and lingering geopolitical risks could all affect the pace of normalization. Textile enterprises should focus on refined cost control and inventory optimization rather than betting on one-way price movements.