The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway handling nearly 30% of global crude oil and one-fifth of LNG trade, is set to resume operations after a disruption of over 100 days. For the textile industry, this is not just an international energy story—it is a signal directly impacting raw material costs, logistics cycles, and market expectations.
Raw Material Costs: High Volatility May Ease
During the shutdown, international crude oil prices remained elevated, directly pushing up production costs for chemical fiber feedstocks such as PX, PTA, and MEG. Industry data shows that polyester chain production costs stayed at five-year highs for three consecutive months. With the resumption of the Strait, Brent and WTI futures have fallen for several consecutive days, and multiple leading energy agencies have lowered their average crude oil price forecasts for the second half of 2026.
It is important to note that there is a 4-6 week lag between crude oil price declines and reductions in downstream textile fabric costs. Feedstock prices will not crash instantly but will decline stepwise along the crude→PX→PTA/MEG chain. The cost inversion problem that plagued chemical fiber mills for nearly half a year will gradually ease, but companies should manage expectations and avoid missing restocking windows by waiting for rock-bottom prices.
Logistics Efficiency: Detour Costs and Time Pressure Lifted
During the shutdown, hundreds of vessels were forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, extending the Far East voyage from about 20 days to over 35 days. Chinese customs data indicates that war risk insurance premiums on Middle East routes nearly tripled, and daily demurrage charges for some vessels exceeded $100,000, pushing bulk commodity logistics costs to historic highs.
After the Strait reopens, stranded vessels will be cleared in an orderly manner, bringing import shipping times for textile raw materials back to normal levels and improving restocking efficiency by approximately 40%. For textile companies reliant on imported petrochemical feedstocks from the Middle East, this directly alleviates inventory shortages and the pressure of bidding for high-priced materials. At the same time, falling shipping costs will lower export logistics expenses for finished fabrics and textiles, potentially expanding the pricing room for foreign trade companies by 2-3 percentage points, restoring their competitive edge in international orders.
Market Confidence: From Cautious Waiting to Gradual Recovery
Over the past 100-plus days, extreme supply chain uncertainty forced most textile companies to adopt conservative strategies of "low inventory and cautious order-taking," slowing the market's goods turnover rate by nearly 30% compared to previous years. The certainty of the Strait's resumption means the risk of extreme supply disruptions has largely been eliminated.
Upstream chemical fiber mills are showing increased restocking willingness, midstream fabric mills are seeing faster order flows, and downstream foreign trade companies are gradually regaining confidence in taking orders. The production-sales cycle of the entire textile chain is expected to return to healthy operation. However, the industry must recognize that market confidence recovery is a gradual process and no sudden demand surge should be expected; companies should avoid blind capacity expansion.