The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global petrochemical raw material transport, is in the final preparation stages for a full resumption of navigation after a shipping disruption lasting over 100 days. This waterway, which handles nearly 30% of the world's crude oil and one-fifth of its liquefied natural gas trade, once operational, will directly reverse the previous passive situation of a tight global energy supply chain and soaring ocean freight costs. For the domestic textile industry, this is far from a distant international shipping news story; it is a substantive relief signal covering the entire chain of raw material procurement, logistics, cost control, and inventory turnover.
Industry Cost of the 100-Day Shutdown
During the shutdown, hundreds of cargo ships loaded with Middle Eastern crude oil and petrochemical intermediates were unable to transit as planned. Most shipowners chose the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, extending the typical 20-day Far East voyage by 15 days. This dramatically increased basic costs such as fuel consumption and crew scheduling, tripled war risk insurance premiums for Middle Eastern routes, and pushed daily demurrage charges for some delayed vessels beyond $100,000. The logistics cost for the entire global commodity market was driven to historical highs.
The most critical production raw materials for the textile industry—PTA, MEG, and PX—are downstream derivatives of the petroleum chain. During the 100-plus days of the strait shutdown, international crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels. Combined with delayed raw material arrivals and declining port inventories, many domestic chemical fiber plants found themselves in a passive situation of 'scrambling for materials, waiting for shipments, and facing rising costs.' The production costs for the polyester chain remained at nearly five-year highs for three consecutive months. The extreme supply chain uncertainty forced almost all textile companies to adopt conservative strategies of 'low inventory and cautious order-taking,' slowing the market's goods turnover rate by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year.
Three Layers of Definite Benefits Post-Resumption
As the resumption countdown begins, multiple industry benefits that were suppressed are set to be released in an orderly manner along the industrial chain.
**Raw Material Side: High Costs to Decline Steadily**
Once the strait resumes normal traffic, the tight global crude oil supply-demand situation will ease quickly. International crude oil futures have already reacted, with Brent and WTI prices falling for consecutive days. Several major energy institutions have lowered their average crude oil price forecasts for the second half of 2026. The decline in oil prices will not be instantaneous but will transmit gradually along the path of crude oil → PX → PTA/MEG. The raw material cost inversion problem that has troubled chemical fiber plants for nearly half a year will be resolved step by step. A special reminder: There is a 4 to 6-week lag period for the cost reduction to transmit from lower crude oil prices to downstream textile fabrics. Subsequent raw material prices will show a trend of 'steady decline and stepwise adjustment,' not a sudden crash as some market rumors suggest.
**Logistics Side: Efficiency and Cost Recovery in Sync**
The pressure from the extended voyage and high insurance premiums caused by the Cape of Good Hope detour will be directly lifted. The hundreds of commercial cargo ships stranded near the strait will be diverted in an orderly manner. The import shipping time for textile raw materials will return to pre-shutdown normal levels, improving enterprise raw material replenishment efficiency by nearly 40%. For companies heavily reliant on imported petrochemical raw materials from the Middle East, the restoration of logistics timeliness will directly alleviate the pressure of insufficient raw material inventory, preventing production halts or reductions due to supply interruptions. At the same time, the fall in shipping costs will directly lower the export logistics expenses for finished fabrics and textiles, potentially widening the pricing space for many foreign trade companies by 2 to 3 percentage points, significantly enhancing their competitiveness in international orders.
**Market Side: Industry Confidence and Circulation Vitality Rebound**
With the certainty of the strait's resumption, the extreme risk of supply disruption is essentially eliminated, and the industry's business outlook will continue to improve. Upstream chemical fiber plants show increased willingness to stock up, order flow accelerates for midstream fabric mills, and downstream foreign trade companies gradually regain confidence in taking orders. The production-sales cycle of the entire textile chain is expected to slowly return to its healthy operational state of previous years.