In May 2026, China's total cotton yarn imports surged over 70% year-on-year, but a worrying structural signal has emerged: inquiries and transactions for open-end spun yarn are slowing, while Pakistani cotton yarn, accounting for nearly 12.4% of imports and growing over 80% year-on-year, became the only major source not to decline month-on-month. This divergence is not a short-term fluctuation but a snapshot of global spinning capacity redistribution and currency games.
The Logic Behind Pakistani Yarn's Counter-Trend Growth
Customs data shows China imported about 21,310 tons of cotton yarn from Pakistan in May, flat month-on-month but surging 80.36% year-on-year. Meanwhile, imports from Vietnam and India fell 11.83% and 29.38% respectively. Pakistani yarn's strength is first attributed to the continued depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar, offering Chinese importers an implicit price discount.
Deeper down, it is driven by 'internal pressure spilling outward' in Pakistan's textile chain. Weak domestic demand forces mills to export more, while improved energy supply has raised operating rates, adding supply pressure to international markets. Additionally, Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts have diverted some Southeast Asian low-to-mid count yarn orders back to China, and these orders naturally favor Pakistani yarn for its stable cotton blending and shipping advantages.
Open-End Spun Market Cooling: Correction or Turning Point?
In contrast to Pakistani yarn's strength, the overall open-end spun market is entering a price-volume correction. Feedback from major weaving clusters in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates slowing inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward-shipment open-end yarn. FOB/CNF/CIF quotes from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India have seen minor pullbacks.
This cooling is not due to disappearing demand but a timing mismatch. Southeast Asian transfer orders are winding down, while domestic winter-spring orders have yet to be placed. More critically, expectations of US tariff hikes under the Section 301 investigation in July have made importers and mills cautious in stockpiling. For denim and home textile fabric mills that rely on open-end yarn, this window offers a chance to reassess procurement mixes.
The Resilience of Siro Spun Yarn: An Underestimated Category
Notably, shipments of Pakistani 8S-21S siro spun yarn have not weakened significantly. Unlike open-end, siro spun yarn offers advantages in weaving efficiency and fabric appearance, especially for high-density low-to-mid count fabrics. This shows that Pakistani yarn's competitiveness is not purely price-driven but based on product structure matching downstream needs.
For Chinese weaving mills, this means that during open-end price corrections, they should not blindly switch to the cheapest alternatives but evaluate how different yarn types affect final product quality. The sustained popularity of siro spun also suggests importers focus on Pakistani mills' ability to supply differentiated products.