The Strait of Hormuz, a global energy shipping chokepoint, is in final preparations to resume normal navigation after over 100 days of disruption. This waterway handles nearly 30% of global crude oil and one-fifth of liquefied natural gas trade. Its reopening will directly alleviate pressures that have gripped the global supply chain for the past three months. For China's textile industry, this is not a distant macro benefit but a tangible relief signal that will directly impact raw material procurement, logistics costs, and inventory turnover.
The 100-Day Disruption: Dual Squeeze on Costs and Logistics
During the shutdown, hundreds of cargo ships carrying Middle Eastern crude and petrochemical intermediates were forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, extending the typical 20-day Far East voyage by 15 days. This detour not only increased fuel consumption and crew scheduling costs but also tripled war risk insurance premiums on Middle Eastern routes. Some vessels experiencing delays over a week faced daily demurrage charges exceeding $100,000, pushing global commodity logistics costs to historic highs.
Key textile raw materials—PTA, ethylene glycol, and PX—are downstream derivatives of the oil chain. Over the 100-day shutdown, international crude prices remained high and volatile, compounded by delayed raw material arrivals and declining port inventories. Domestic chemical fiber mills were forced into a passive cycle of scrambling for materials, waiting for shipments, and absorbing rising costs. Production costs along the polyester chain stayed at five-year highs for three consecutive months, directly squeezing margins for midstream fabric mills and downstream garment manufacturers.
Three Clear Benefits After Resumption
With the countdown to resumption underway, the repair channel for global energy and textile supply chains has opened. Three clear benefits will be released along the industrial chain.
**Raw Material Side: High Costs to Decline Gradually.** Once the waterway reopens, the tight global crude supply-demand balance will ease quickly. International crude futures have already reacted: Brent and WTI prices have fallen for multiple consecutive days, and several major energy agencies have lowered their average crude price forecasts for the second half of 2026. However, the decline will not be immediate. The price transmission from crude to PX to PTA/ethylene glycol will take 4-6 weeks. This means raw material prices will follow a steady, stepwise downward trajectory, not the instant crash some market rumors suggest.
**Logistics Side: Efficiency and Cost Recovery.** The extended voyages and high insurance premiums caused by the Cape of Good Hope detour will be eliminated. The hundreds of commercial ships waiting near the strait will be dispersed in an orderly manner. Import shipping times for textile raw materials will return to pre-disruption levels, improving raw material replenishment efficiency by nearly 40%. For companies heavily reliant on imported petrochemical raw materials from the Middle East, this logistics recovery will directly relieve inventory pressure, eliminating the risk of production stoppages due to supply shortfalls. Reduced shipping costs will also lower export logistics expenses for finished fabrics, expanding pricing room for foreign trade companies by 2-3 percentage points.
**Market Side: Industry Confidence and Circulation Recovery.** Over the past 100-plus days, extreme supply chain uncertainty forced nearly all textile companies to adopt conservative strategies of low inventory and cautious order-taking. Market circulation slowed by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year. The certainty of the strait's reopening removes the risk of extreme supply disruptions. Upstream chemical fiber mills are showing stronger restocking intentions, midstream fabric mills are seeing faster order turnover, and downstream foreign trade companies are regaining confidence. The entire industry chain's production-sales cycle is expected to return to healthy operation.