Pakistani Yarn Breaks Through: Import Landscape Shifts, Open-End Spinning Under Pressure

In May 2026, China's cotton yarn import market showed significant divergence. According to customs data, total imports were approximately 172,200 tons, down 14.03% month-on-month but up 71.75% year-on-year. Notably, imports from Vietnam and India fell 11.83% and 29.38% month-on-month, respectively, while those from Pakistan rose slightly by 0.01% month-on-month and surged 80.36% year-on-year to 21,310 tons, accounting for 12.37% of total imports. This divergence signals a structural shift in the competitive landscape of imported cotton yarn, with Pakistan emerging as a force to be reckoned with.

The Logic Behind Pakistan's Growth The strong performance of Pakistani cotton yarn is no accident. Geopolitical factors played a key role, as the US-Israel-Iran conflict redirected some low-margin textile orders from Southeast Asia back to China, fitting well with Pakistani yarn's positioning. Additionally, the continuous depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar boosted export competitiveness. Weak domestic demand in Pakistan also pushed mills to focus on overseas markets. Furthermore, the 'two-way flow' of cotton yarn and fabric trade between China and Pakistan, along with stable cotton blending and shorter transport distances, made Pakistani yarn more attractive to Chinese buyers.

Open-End Spinning Market Under Pressure In contrast to the resilience of Pakistani carded yarn, the open-end spinning market is facing a downturn. Feedback from weaving mills and traders in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates sluggish inquiries and transactions for both bonded and forward cargo open-end yarn. This is due to multiple headwinds: the winding down of transferred orders from Southeast Asia, the lack of new domestic orders for the winter-spring season, and market concerns over potential US tariffs under Section 301 in July. As a result, FOB/CNF/CIF quotes for open-end yarn from Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India continue to edge down, while shipments of Pakistani 8S-21S carded yarn remain relatively stable.

Supply Chain Implications and Pricing A sharp decline in Pakistani cotton prices has further amplified the cost advantage of its yarn. A Zhejiang-based import-export company noted that since mid-June, Pakistani cotton prices have dropped significantly, while mill operating rates have recovered as energy and power supply issues eased, increasing export pressure. Combined with the medium-term depreciation trend of the rupee, many traders are waiting for a better buying opportunity. For Chinese buyers, this means Pakistani yarn will offer even greater cost-effectiveness in the short term, though risks from exchange rate fluctuations and shipment delays must be managed.

Reshaping Import Competition Pakistan's rise is reshaping the traditional import market dominated by Vietnam and India. Through a combination of cost, location, and policy advantages, Pakistan is carving out market share. For Chinese mills and brands, this offers greater sourcing diversification and bargaining power. However, the weakness in open-end yarn highlights the vulnerability of low-end segments to order shifts and tariff policies. As global supply chains continue to adjust, competition in China's imported yarn market will intensify. Whether Pakistan's 'breakthrough' is sustainable depends on its ability to maintain price advantages while ensuring stable quality and supply.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Monitor Pakistani cotton prices and rupee exchange rates; lock in long-term orders at low points but include currency fluctuation protection clauses. - Evaluate the cost-performance trade-off between Pakistani, Vietnamese, and Indian yarns, especially for substitution possibilities between 8S-21S carded yarn and open-end yarn. - Be cautious of US tariff uncertainties in July; avoid large inventory buildup before policy clarity.

For Foreign Trade Companies - Strengthen direct ties with Pakistani mills to reduce intermediaries and secure better pricing. - Develop differentiated products for open-end yarn, such as blended or functional yarns, to avoid homogenized competition. - Leverage China-Pakistan trade facilitation policies to optimize logistics and customs clearance, shortening delivery times.