On July 1, 2026, the mainstream quotation range for domestic polyester POY (150D/48F semi-dull) was locked between 8,050 and 8,400 RMB/ton. This spread of only 350 RMB is nearly 42% narrower than the 600 RMB spread seen in the same period last year. What does this mean? Not a price war, but a structural shift in the profit distribution mechanism of the industrial chain.
The Industrial Logic Behind the Narrowing Spread
Looking at specific quotes: Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 8,200 RMB/ton, Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 8,050 RMB/ton, and Tongkun Group's Hengteng Differential Fiber quoted 8,400 RMB/ton—the gap between the highest and lowest is merely 350 RMB. Public industry data shows that the CR5 (capacity concentration ratio of the top five enterprises) in the current POY industry has exceeded 60%, significantly strengthening the pricing power of leading companies. When major factories form a tacit quotation range, the arbitrage space for middlemen is compressed, and the bargaining flexibility of downstream weaving mills correspondingly decreases.
More notably, all these quotes come from Zhejiang Province, particularly Hangzhou and Shaoxing. Shaoxing is a weaving hub, while Hangzhou serves as a chemical fiber trade and logistics center. The high concentration of factory quotes in the same region indicates that the impact of regional factors such as logistics costs and warehousing fees on final transaction prices is weakening. Market pricing is increasingly relying on a transparent model of 'factory ex-factory price plus freight.'
Bottlenecks in Downstream Transmission of Upstream Pressure
While POY prices are oscillating in a narrow range, the price fluctuations of upstream raw material PTA have not narrowed synchronously. In the first half of 2026, PTA prices were affected by international PX (paraxylene) market volatility, with an amplitude exceeding 15%. According to conventional cost transmission mechanisms, POY prices should have fluctuated more significantly, but actual quotes have shown rare stability.
This reveals a core contradiction: profits in the chemical fiber chain are being squeezed in the middle. Upstream PTA price increases cannot be fully passed down to downstream POY because downstream weaving demand is weak—terminal garment export orders are slowing due to the global consumption downgrade. Weaving mills dare not hoard inventory; procurement on demand has become mainstream. This forces POY manufacturers to absorb raw material cost increases through internal cost reduction and economies of scale rather than price hikes.
- For POY factories: shrinking profit margins force a transition to differentiated products (such as flame-retardant, antibacterial, moisture-wicking functional POY).
- For weaving mills: stable raw material prices facilitate cost estimation but also mean they cannot earn inventory premiums from raw material fluctuations.