The countdown to the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has opened a long-awaited crack in the global energy and textile supply chain. This critical waterway, carrying nearly 30% of global crude oil and one-fifth of liquefied natural gas trade, has entered its final preparation phase after a 100-day disruption. For China's textile industry, this is far from a distant shipping headline—it is a substantive relief signal covering raw material procurement, logistics, cost control, and inventory turnover across the entire chain.
Raw Material Costs: End of High Volatility and Gradual Decline
During the 100-day shutdown, international crude oil prices remained elevated, compounded by delayed arrivals and falling port inventories. Domestic polyester fiber plants faced a passive situation of 'scrambling for raw materials, waiting for shipments, and absorbing rising costs.' Production costs along the polyester chain stayed at near five-year highs for three consecutive months. With the resumption news, Brent and WTI crude futures have fallen for multiple consecutive days, and several major energy institutions have lowered their average crude price forecasts for the second half of 2026.
However, the cost decline will not be instantaneous. The pass-through from crude to PX, then to PTA and MEG, involves a 4- to 6-week lag. This means chemical fiber raw material prices will follow a 'steady decline, stepwise adjustment' path, not the instant crash some rumors suggest. For polyester plants, the months-long raw material cost inversion will gradually ease, but short-term inventory devaluation risks remain.
Logistics Efficiency: The Cost of Cape of Good Hope Detours Is Lifting
During the shutdown, hundreds of laden tankers and petrochemical vessels were forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, stretching the Far East route from 20 to 35 days. War risk premiums on Middle East routes tripled, and demurrage charges for vessels stuck over a week exceeded $100,000 per day. The entire bulk commodity logistics cost was pushed to historical highs.
Post-resumption, the stranded vessels will be gradually cleared, and the import shipping time for textile raw materials will return to pre-disruption levels, boosting raw material replenishment efficiency by nearly 40%. This is critical for textile companies heavily reliant on Middle Eastern petrochemical imports—inventory pressure will ease, and the need to scramble for high-priced supplies to keep production lines running will diminish. Simultaneously, the drop in shipping costs will lower export logistics expenses for finished fabrics and textiles, widening export pricing room by 2 to 3 percentage points and restoring competitiveness in international orders.
Market Confidence: From 'Low Inventory, Cautious Orders' to Revival
Over the past 100-plus days, extreme supply chain uncertainty forced nearly all textile enterprises into conservative strategies: upstream polyester plants reduced stocking, midstream fabric mills saw order flow slow by nearly 30% year-on-year, and downstream exporters remained cautious. The certainty of the strait's reopening means the extreme supply disruption risk is essentially resolved.
Industry sentiment is improving: polyester plants are showing greater restocking willingness, fabric mills are accelerating order turnover, and exporters are regaining confidence in taking new orders. The production-sales cycle across the textile chain is expected to gradually return to its normal healthy state. For small and medium-sized textile mills, this is an opportunity to optimize inventory, fine-tune production cost control, and capture autumn/winter orders. For leading companies, it is a window to reassess global raw material sourcing strategies and enhance hedging mechanisms across different regional supplies.