In May 2026, China's total cotton yarn imports fell to 172,200 tons, a month-on-month decline of 14.03%. Yet within this downward curve, Pakistani cotton yarn performed independently: imports reached 21,310 tons, up 0.01% month-on-month and a staggering 80.36% year-on-year.
One ton of Pakistani yarn arriving at port is rewriting the competitive rules of the open-end spun market.
Structural Divergence Amid Volume and Price Declines
Customs data paints a sharply divided picture. Vietnamese yarn imports stood at 82,050 tons, still the largest share, but down 11.83% month-on-month. Indian yarn imports were 22,430 tons, plummeting 29.38% month-on-month. Combined, their share fell from over 60% to about 60.65%.
Meanwhile, Pakistan's share rose to 12.37%, showing a slight increase rather than decline. More critically, feedback from weaving hubs in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates that inquiries and transactions for bonded and forward open-end spun yarn at ports are sluggish. FOB/CNF/CIF quotes for Vietnamese, Indonesian, Malaysian, and Indian open-end yarns continue to edge down. Only shipments of Pakistani 8S-21S siro spun yarn have not slowed noticeably.
This suggests the current volume and price decline in the open-end spun market is not a broad recession but a regional redistribution. Pakistani yarn is filling the gap left by other origins.
Triple Drivers: Currency, Costs, and Geopolitics
The medium-to-long-term depreciation trend of the Pakistani rupee against the U.S. dollar is the most direct engine driving Pakistani yarn exports. Currency depreciation naturally gives Pakistani yarn a price advantage when priced in dollars, allowing mills to offer lower quotes without actively cutting prices.
At the same time, domestic cotton prices in Pakistan fell sharply in mid-June, and the easing of energy and electricity supply crises has raised mill operating rates, further lowering production costs. Weak domestic demand forces factories to shift more capacity to exports, turning export pressure into a driving force.
Geopolitical factors also play a role. Conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran have redirected some low-margin, low-count textile and apparel orders originally destined for Southeast Asia back to China. These orders are extremely cost-sensitive, and Pakistani yarn's cost-effectiveness fits perfectly. The "two-way trade" mechanism for cotton yarn and cotton cloth between China and Pakistan also reduces transaction friction.
Practical Impact on Weaving Procurement Strategies
For domestic weaving mills and yarn traders, the rise of Pakistani yarn means a substantial increase in supply chain options. The pricing system anchored by Vietnamese and Indian yarns is loosening. Pakistani yarn's stable cotton blending and shorter shipping distances are amplified under currency volatility.
The actions of a Zhejiang-based textile import-export company signal the market's expectation: holding cash and waiting for opportunities to replenish Pakistani cotton yarn inventories. This indicates market expectations of further price declines, especially if Pakistani cotton prices continue to fall.
However, two risks must be monitored: first, the Southeast Asian order transfer is in its final phase, and domestic autumn-winter orders have not yet been placed, creating a demand gap; second, potential U.S. tariff increases on Chinese imports under Section 301 could disrupt the entire cotton yarn trade flow.