Polyester Staple Fiber Price Hits Yearly Low, Inventory Pressure May Shift to Midstream

The price of polyester staple fiber (PSF) is under renewed pressure this year. As of July 2, 2026, the benchmark price stood at 7,311.29 yuan per ton, down 1.45% from the start of the month and positioned in the mid-to-low range of the past 12 months. Compared to the peak of 8,426 yuan per ton a year ago, the decline exceeds 13%, with an annual average of 6,965 yuan per ton reflecting a generally weak market.

Price Center Shifts Downward, Cost Support Tested

Looking at the annual price structure, PSF fluctuated between a low of 6,267 yuan and a high of 8,426 yuan over the past year, with a median of 7,346 yuan. The current price of 7,311 yuan is already below the median, and the gap to the top is 1,114 yuan while the gap to the bottom is only 1,044 yuan, suggesting further downside potential.

For polyester mills, current prices are approaching production costs. The feedstock cost of polyester chips (based on PTA and MEG) is currently around 6,800-7,000 yuan per ton. If PSF prices weaken further, mills may face losses, forcing some small and medium-sized producers to cut operating rates to control inventory growth.

Downstream Procurement Turns Cautious, Inventory Pressure Moves Upstream

The core driver of this price correction is weak demand from the weaving sector. Operating rates in major grey fabric hubs like Shengze and Changxing have been declining since Q2, with some water-jet loom factories running at below 60% capacity. Sluggish recovery in apparel export orders has led weavers to purchase raw materials only for immediate needs, avoiding inventory buildup.

This cautious sentiment is reflected in PSF sales-to-output ratios. Industry data shows the average ratio for June was under 80%, down 5 percentage points from May. Finished goods inventory at mills rose from 12 days at end-May to over 15 days, with some firms already offering discounts to reduce stock pressure.

Regional Divergence: Keqiao vs. Nantong Respond Differently

Different textile clusters show varied reactions to the price decline. In Keqiao, where woven fabrics dominate, demand for PSF is relatively rigid, and procurement cuts are limited. In contrast, the Nantong home textile cluster, currently in the off-season for winter orders, saw raw material purchases drop about 10% year-on-year. This structural divergence means PSF prices may need to wait for the home textile peak season to generate incremental demand before stabilizing.

Outlook: Q3 Could Be a Key Battleground

Looking ahead to Q3, the PSF market will face a mix of bullish and bearish factors. On the supply side, some maintenance units are scheduled to restart in July-August, potentially increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, autumn/winter fabric orders are expected to gradually emerge by late August, possibly triggering a restocking wave.

The key variable remains crude oil prices. If international oil stays low, polyester feedstock cost support will weaken further, and PSF could test the 6,800 yuan level. Conversely, if oil rebounds, PSF may trade in a 7,000-7,500 yuan range.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Current prices are at mid-low levels, but downside risk persists. Adopt a phased procurement strategy to avoid overstocking. - Monitor PTA plant maintenance schedules in late July; if feedstock supply tightens, consider increasing buffer stocks. - Negotiate short-term floating price contracts with suppliers to lock in price ranges and hedge against sharp drops.

For Polyester Mills - Keep finished goods inventory below 12 days to prevent value erosion and capital tie-up. - Flexibly adjust operating rates; proactively cut production when the sales-to-output ratio falls below 80%. - Expand differentiation into products like recycled PSF or functional fibers to avoid price wars on standard grades.