Polyester staple fiber prices are undergoing a silent 'bottoming' process. According to publicly available industry data, on July 2, 2026, the benchmark price of polyester staple fiber stood at 7,311.29 yuan/ton, down 1.45% from the beginning of the month's 7,418.65 yuan/ton. This price sits at the median of the past year's range—with a low of 6,267.17 yuan/ton and a high of 8,426.02 yuan/ton, the median being 7,346.6 yuan/ton. The current price nearly coincides with the median, indicating that the market is neither extremely panicked nor has upward momentum, stuck in a typical 'difficult to move either way' stalemate.
The Logic Behind the Price Center's Downward Shift
From an annual perspective, polyester staple fiber prices have fluctuated by as much as 33.5% over the past 12 months, ranging from a low of 6,267 yuan to a high of 8,426 yuan, a spread of over 2,000 yuan. However, what is more noteworthy is that the current price has fallen 13.2% from its yearly high, and the annual average price is only 6,965.5 yuan, significantly lower than the current level. This indicates that prices operated at lower levels for most of the year, and the current 'median' is merely the result of a decline from a cyclical high.
For downstream spinning enterprises, the pressure on raw material costs has somewhat eased, but terminal demand has not simultaneously recovered. Weak demand from weaving and apparel sectors has transmitted upstream, significantly slowing the procurement pace for polyester staple fiber. Industry data shows that in the first half of 2026, operating rates for domestic polyester staple fiber remained around 78%, but new capacity continues to be released, making it difficult to reverse the supply-demand imbalance in the short term.
The Transmission Effects of the Price Stalemate on the Industry Chain
The fact that polyester staple fiber prices are hovering near the cost line has distinctly different impacts on enterprises of varying scales. For leading companies with integrated PTA capacity, the current price level still allows for marginal profits, leveraging the advantages of an integrated industry chain to absorb cost fluctuations. However, for small and medium enterprises reliant on external raw material purchases, the 7,311 yuan/ton price is already approaching their full cost line. If prices further dip below 7,000 yuan, an industry shakeout will be inevitable.
From an inventory cycle perspective, current social inventories of polyester staple fiber are at a moderately high level. Traders and downstream factories generally adopt a 'buy as needed' strategy, reluctant to build up stockpiles. This sentiment further exacerbates the price stalemate—buyers are not aggressive, sellers are unwilling to cut prices, and market transactions are characterized by low activity.
Differentiated Responses from Regional Industrial Clusters
The performance of polyester staple fiber markets varies across different regions. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang, due to the concentration of downstream texturizing and weaving enterprises, raw material procurement is relatively flexible, and price fluctuations transmit more quickly. In Fujian and Guangdong, where knitting-focused industrial clusters dominate, demand for polyester staple fiber is relatively stable but remains cautious due to uncertainties in foreign trade orders.
Notably, the substitution effect between polyester staple fiber, cotton, and viscose staple fiber is strengthening. With cotton prices currently at relatively high levels, some spinning enterprises are adjusting their formulas to increase the proportion of polyester staple fiber. This substitution demand provides some support for polyester staple fiber prices, but the volume is limited and insufficient to change the overall supply-demand landscape.