The price of nylon POY has been virtually pinned at 13,650 RMB/ton for the past twelve months. Daily fluctuations have been nil, yet the annual trading range has been a dramatic 5,650 RMB/ton — from a low of 11,300 to a high of 16,950. This apparent calm on the surface masks the intense tug-of-war occurring in the chemical fiber supply chain.
The Illusion of a Stable Price Center
The figure of 13,650 RMB/ton sits exactly at the 'mid-range' position in the annual statistics. Compared to the median value of 14,125 RMB, the current price is only 475 RMB lower, which seems moderate. However, a closer look at the extremes tells a different story: a top deviation of -3,300 RMB and a bottom deviation of +2,350 RMB mean the market has endured both a 20% drop and a 17% surge. These wide swings have left no trace on the average price, instead forming a near-horizontal baseline — a classic signal of a temporary balance between supply and demand.
From a supply chain perspective, the upstream raw material caprolactam has also experienced a roller-coaster ride over the past year. However, downstream weaving and apparel buyers have consistently been unwilling to absorb high raw material costs. When upstream price increases fail to pass through, the midstream polymerization and spinning stages become the primary pressure bearers. Industry public data shows that the annual average price of nylon POY was 12,788 RMB, about 6.7% lower than the current price, indicating that prices have been below current levels for most of the year. The current level is actually on the high side for the year.
Regional Divergence in Industrial Clusters
The price stagnation has had vastly different impacts on major nylon-producing regions. In key areas like Changle, Fujian, and Hai'an, Jiangsu, small and medium-sized POY producers are generally facing a 'higher output, no higher profit' dilemma. Some have chosen to reduce operating rates to maintain cash flow, while leading companies use long-term contracts to lock in raw material costs and leverage economies of scale to dilute processing fees.
For downstream buyers, the current price environment offers a rare decision-making window. Compared to the annual low of 11,300 RMB, the current price is about 20% higher, but it still represents a nearly 20% discount from the historical high of 16,950 RMB. This 'neither here nor there' position tests the inventory cycle judgment of procurement managers. The Texworld editorial team has noted that some weaving mills have begun small-scale restocking, but large-scale procurement has yet to commence, as the market awaits clearer directional signals.
Three Key Variables in the Supply-Demand Game
Looking ahead to the next six months, whether nylon POY prices can maintain this plateau depends on three critical factors:
- The trend of crude oil and pure benzene prices: Caprolactam costs account for over 70% of the total, so any significant movement in international oil prices will directly impact the POY cost floor.
- The pace of downstream end-consumer recovery: Apparel export data for the first quarter of 2026 has been lackluster, and demand for nylon from the home textile sector is insufficient to drive an overall rally.
- The pace of new capacity additions: According to industry public information, approximately 300,000 tons of new nylon polymerization capacity is planned in China for 2026. A concentrated commissioning could disrupt the current supply-demand balance.
The current mid-range price is essentially a fragile equilibrium point where 'cost support' meets 'demand suppression'. If any of these variables exceed expectations, the baseline that has held for twelve months could be broken.