Shengze Polyester Filament Market Under Seasonal Pressure, Price Eases Alongside Rising Inventory

In early July, the Shengze polyester filament market is experiencing a typical off-season downturn. While most mainstream product prices remained nominally stable from July 1st to 2nd, the industry is showing clear signs of price easing. A few mills have cut prices by 50 to 100 yuan per ton, and many more are offering discounts in actual transactions to secure orders. This pattern of 'apparent stability with hidden weakness' reflects the current tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players in the supply chain.

Off-Season Effects and Inventory Pressure Converge

The core driver of the current market weakness is the seasonal contraction in downstream weaving. July is a traditional off-season for the textile industry, with weaving mills generally reducing operating rates, which in turn diminishes demand for raw materials. Simultaneously, weakening upstream polyester raw material prices have further dampened downstream restocking intentions. Under this dual pressure, polyester plants are seeing their polyester filament inventories rise, making sales their top priority.

Rising inventories have directly shifted the balance of pricing power. Previously supported by raw material costs, polyester mills were more firm on prices, but now, with the pressure to sell, the room for discounts in actual transactions has quietly opened. This means that for weaving mills with procurement needs, the current period may be a noteworthy window for negotiation.

Price Transmission: A Chain Reaction from Raw Materials to Grey Fabrics

Price fluctuations in polyester filament are never an isolated event. As a core raw material for weaving, its price changes directly impact the grey fabric market. Currently, major polyester filament varieties in Shengze, such as FDY semi-dull 75D/36F, are quoted between 8,900 and 9,500 yuan per ton. The price differences among enterprises reflect their varying inventory levels and sales strategies.

Notably, the FDY fully dull series maintains prices at a high range of 11,700 to 12,100 yuan per ton, indicating that differentiated products have stronger resilience against price drops during the off-season. This signals to downstream buyers that while conventional products face downward pressure, the bargaining room for high-value-added, differentiated raw materials is limited, requiring procurement strategies to be tailored by product type.

Short-Term Outlook: Price Center Likely to Move Lower

Based on publicly available industry data, the probability of a downward shift in the center of polyester filament prices in the short term is high. On one hand, off-season demand is unlikely to reverse in the near future. On the other hand, polyester plants still need time to destock their inventories. As 'trading volume for price' becomes a common strategy, price competition may intensify further.

For weaving mills, this presents both challenges and opportunities. The challenge lies in the uncertainty of raw material prices, which complicates order-taking and cost accounting. The opportunity is that if procurement timing is well-managed, mills can lock in costs at lower price levels, thereby enhancing their competitiveness for orders in the second half of the year.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Monitor inventory levels at polyester plants; higher inventories generally mean more room for negotiation, allowing for more aggressive price bargaining. - Adopt a differentiated strategy for different product types: wait and see for conventional products, but procure differentiated items (e.g., fully dull series) as needed to avoid missing out. - Consider signing short-term floating price agreements with suppliers to hedge against price volatility and lock in raw material costs for some orders.

For Foreign Trade Companies - When taking orders during this price downtrend, use a 'raw material cost plus processing fee' pricing model to prevent profit erosion from raw material fluctuations. - Monitor RMB exchange rate changes and, combined with the raw material price drop window, consider locking in raw material costs for forward orders in advance. - Communicate the off-season signal to customers to negotiate more flexible payment and delivery terms, reducing your own capital commitment.