Polyester Staple Fiber Price Drops to Midpoint of Year-Long Range, Inventory Pressure May Persist

The price of polyester staple fiber weakened again in early July, with the benchmark price settling at 7,311.29 yuan per ton, down 1.45% from the start of the month. This level sits near the midpoint of the yearly range—the median value is 7,346.6 yuan per ton—but remains more than 1,100 yuan below the yearly high of 8,426 yuan per ton, and about 1,044 yuan above the low of 6,267 yuan per ton.

Supply-Demand Logic Behind the Midpoint Price

Despite being at the midpoint, the market is far from balanced. Annual data shows the average price over the past 12 months was only 6,965 yuan per ton, below the current benchmark, indicating that prices have spent most of the time below the midpoint. Since the second half of 2025, downstream textile mills have shown persistently weak purchasing interest, accelerating inventory buildup in the chemical fiber sector. As a bulk textile raw material, polyester staple fiber's price trend directly mirrors the supply-demand imbalance in the polyester chain: upstream PTA capacity is ample, while terminal apparel orders lack momentum, preventing the intermediate staple fiber segment from effectively absorbing supply.

Narrower Decline but Risks Remain

A 1.45% drop from the start of the month is not drastic, but over a longer horizon, prices have fallen over 13% from the year-ago high of 8,426 yuan per ton. This means that over the past year, prices have experienced a sharp decline from the top to volatile trading at lower levels. Although the current price is near the midpoint, there is little upward momentum. For buyers, the midpoint is often seen as a "reasonable range," but if demand continues to weaken, prices could break below the midpoint and approach the bottom area around 6,000 yuan per ton.

Regional Impact and Procurement Timing

Price fluctuations in polyester staple fiber significantly affect downstream industrial clusters. In major consumption areas such as Changle in Fujian, Xiaoshan in Zhejiang, and Jiangyin in Jiangsu, local yarn mills report that raw material cost volatility has increased profit management difficulty. When prices are at the midpoint, some mills prefer to buy on demand to avoid building inventory, while others see the current level as close to cost support and start small restocking. This divergence itself indicates that the market direction remains unclear.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Current prices are at the midpoint; purchase according to order cycles to avoid inventory risk from speculative buying. - Monitor PTA and MEG price trends; if upstream costs soften, staple fiber prices may decline further, so consider delaying large orders. - Negotiate short-term floating price agreements with suppliers to lock in relatively low prices amid fluctuations.

For Export-Oriented Companies - Build price fluctuation buffers into export quotations to prevent profit erosion from raw material price drops. - For major export markets like Southeast Asia and South Asia, track local polyester staple fiber price differentials and flexibly adjust sourcing origins. - Use futures or forward contracts to lock in raw material costs for the next 3-6 months, guarding against sharp moves beyond the midpoint.