Chemical Fibers Under Pressure, Cotton Prices Rise: Insights into Textile Raw Material Divergence in Early July

The early July textile raw material market presents a rare divergence: cotton edged up 0.30%, while chemical fibers like PTA, acrylonitrile, and polyester yarn weakened collectively. Data from the Commodity Price Monitor on July 2, 2026, shows that among 17 monitored textile commodities, only cotton rose, four declined, and the rest remained flat, with an average daily change of -0.15%. This price pattern is not random but reflects underlying industry dynamics.

Chemical Fiber Sector Under Pressure: PTA Leads the Decline PTA fell 1.57% in a single day, dropping from 5,777.83 yuan/ton to 5,686.84 yuan/ton, the largest decline among all textile raw materials that day. Acrylonitrile fell 0.50%, while polyester yarn and polyester staple fiber each dropped 0.42%. The synchronized weakness in the chemical fiber chain points to two key factors: ample upstream PX supply expectations and declining downstream weaving operating rates. As a hub in the polyester chain, PTA's price decline directly weakens cost support for polyester filament and staple fiber, further transmitting to polyester yarn. For grey fabric and finished fabric processors, this suggests a potential window for lower raw material procurement costs, but also raises the risk of inventory depreciation.

Cotton Rises Against the Trend: Strong Fundamentals Remain Amid widespread declines in chemical fibers, cotton rose from 17,728.83 yuan/ton to 17,781.83 yuan/ton, up 0.30%, with a year-on-year increase of 17.29%. The driver is supply-side: expectations of reduced planting area in Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season, combined with persistent weather disruptions in major Northern Hemisphere producing countries, make the supply tightness before new crop arrival hard to reverse. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were flat, suggesting downstream cotton spinning mills are not rushing to follow the uptick, but rather digesting earlier raw material inventories. This price resilience sends a stabilizing signal for pure cotton fabric exporters—at least in the short term, cotton prices are unlikely to correct sharply.

Spandex and Viscose Remain Silent: High-Price Stalemate Spandex prices held at 29,666.67 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.09%, the highest among all monitored items. Viscose staple fiber was reported at 14,200 yuan/ton, up 9.06% year-on-year. These two categories' sideways movement does not reflect market calm but rather a high-price stalemate. Spandex downstream demand for stretch fabrics is slowing, yet capacity expansion cycles are not over, keeping supply-demand negotiations ongoing. Viscose staple fiber is supported by dissolving pulp costs, limiting downside room in the near term. For buyers, these two categories currently offer no cost-effective bulk purchasing opportunity and are better suited for just-in-time procurement.

Nylon Sector Flat Across the Board: Stability Hides Concerns Nylon DTY, FDY, and POY all held steady from the previous trading day, with year-on-year gains ranging from 5.50% to 8.98%. Nylon's stability reflects a stalemate between upstream and downstream: caprolactam price fluctuations have narrowed, while downstream nylon fabric orders lack explosive growth. If this sideways trend persists, it may indicate that profits in the nylon chain are concentrating in the intermediate links, while end demand has not effectively expanded.

Practical Recommendations ### For Sourcing Managers - Monitor the linked decline window of PTA and polyester staple fiber; consider locking in polyester fabric raw material costs in batches after prices stabilize. - Cotton prices remain high; for pure cotton fabrics, shorten order cycles to avoid large inventory buildup. - For spandex and viscose staple fiber, procure on a just-in-time basis; avoid speculative stockpiling.

For Export Enterprises - The decline in chemical fiber raw material prices helps improve the competitiveness of polyester fabric export quotes; adjust pricing strategies moderately to capture orders. - Firm cotton prices squeeze margins for pure cotton export products; consider including raw material price linkage clauses in contracts. - Monitor PTA and acrylonitrile trends; if declines continue, consider locking in costs for long-term chemical fiber orders in advance.