The bulk commodity prices on July 2 revealed a subtle divergence: among the 17 monitored textile sector items, only cotton rose slightly by 0.30%, while PTA led the decline with a 1.57% drop, followed by acrylonitrile (-0.50%), polyester yarn (-0.42%), and polyester staple fiber (-0.42%). Behind the seemingly routine daily data lie distinctly different supply-demand narratives for chemical fiber raw materials and cotton spinning.
Two Downward Lines from Raw Materials
PTA fell 88.99 yuan/ton to 5,686.84 yuan/ton, far exceeding other declines. As a core intermediate in the polyester chain, PTA prices are highly sensitive to upstream PX costs and downstream polyester operating rates. This drop likely stems from recent international crude oil price fluctuations transmitting to the PX segment, combined with increased supply after some PTA unit maintenance restarts, while downstream polyester filament, staple fiber, and yarn sales have not kept pace—polyester yarn and staple fiber both fell 0.42% on the same day, confirming weak demand absorption.
Acrylonitrile fell 0.50% to 10,033.33 yuan/ton. Although the absolute decline is smaller than PTA's, its year-on-year increase of 25.42% shows prices remain historically high. Downstream applications include acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber precursors. The textile-grade acrylic fiber segment is typically weak during the summer off-season, and some plants have resumed production after maintenance, putting short-term pressure on prices.
Cotton's 'Independent Move' and Implied Signals
In contrast to the broad decline in chemical fiber raw materials, cotton rose 0.30% to 17,781.83 yuan/ton, up 17.29% year-on-year. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were flat, and viscose staple fiber, rayon yarn, and spandex also showed no volatility. This 'cotton strong, chemical fiber weak' pattern reflects two industrial realities: first, the cotton market is in a tight supply window before the new crop season, with reserve releases and import quota allocations becoming short-term pricing anchors; second, downstream weaving mills are replenishing cotton yarn on a demand-only basis rather than speculatively, so stable cotton yarn prices amid a slight cotton price rise indicate no explosive order growth.
Notably, spandex prices held at 29,666.67 yuan/ton, up 21.09% year-on-year. Spandex's high levels have persisted for months, supported by raw material MDI and PTMEG costs and rigid demand for elastic fabrics (yoga wear, sportswear). However, if PTA continues falling and drags the polyester chain lower, spandex's downstream customers (elastic fabric weavers) may face margin compression from both cost and sales sides.
Expected Chain Reactions in the Polyester Segment
PTA's decline is not isolated. Although polyester POY, DTY, and FDY prices did not fall on the day, given that PTA is the direct raw material for polyester filament, sustained PTA weakness would significantly lower production costs. Industry experience suggests that for every 100 yuan/ton drop in PTA, polyester POY's theoretical cost could decrease by about 85 yuan/ton. Currently, polyester POY is quoted at 8,250 yuan/ton, up 11.77% year-on-year; if cost support weakens, a catch-up decline in polyester filament prices cannot be ruled out.
For weaving mills, this means raw material procurement strategies need reassessment. If PTA and polyester products still have room to fall, large stockpiling risks inventory depreciation; conversely, if PTA is near a cyclical bottom, costs can be locked in gradually. Historically, July-August is a traditional off-season, offering little demand support, so raw material prices are likely to remain weak and volatile.