On July 2, 2026, the textile commodity market experienced a rare divergence. PTA fell 1.57% in a single day to 5,686.84 CNY/ton, still up 13.03% year-on-year, while cotton rose 0.30% to 17,781.83 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 17.29%. Such a split between a rise and a fall within the same sector has been uncommon in the past three months.
Raw Material Side: PTA Leads Decline, Polyester Chain Under Pressure
The drop in PTA was not an isolated event. On the same day, acrylonitrile fell 0.50%, and polyester staple fiber and polyester yarn both declined by 0.42%. All four falling products were concentrated in the chemical fiber and its upstream sectors, indicating that the polyester industry chain is facing phased adjustment pressure. As the core raw material for polyester, PTA price fluctuations directly transmit to downstream polyester filament and staple fiber. Although prices of polyester POY, DTY, and FDY remained flat on July 2, the weakening raw material implies a risk of subsequent declines in polyester products.
Notably, acrylonitrile's year-on-year increase of 25.42% remains high despite the daily drop, putting cost pressure on downstream industries such as acrylic and carbon fiber. Buyers should be alert to the pace of potential high-level corrections.
Cotton Textile Sector: Cotton Stands Out, Yarn Stable
In contrast to the weakness in chemical fibers, the cotton textile sector showed strong resilience. Cotton prices have risen consecutively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.29%. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices remained flat, up 7.50% and 6.57% year-on-year, respectively. This indicates smooth cost transmission in the cotton textile chain, with downstream weaving enterprises not significantly reducing purchases due to high cotton prices.
Feedback from industrial belts suggests that expectations of reduced new-season planting area in Xinjiang, coupled with strong international cotton prices, provide solid support for domestic cotton. The stability of cotton yarn prices indicates acceptable tolerance for high-priced cotton at the weaving end. However, if PTA continues to weaken, the substitution effect of chemical fibers may marginally impact cotton yarn demand.
Specialty Fibers and Viscose: High-Level Consolidation Awaiting Direction
Spandex prices were reported at 29,666.67 CNY/ton, up 21.09% year-on-year, but flat on the day. Viscose staple fiber and modal fiber also remained stable. These varieties have experienced significant earlier gains and are currently in a high-level digestion phase. For buyers, chasing prices at this stage carries high risk; it is more appropriate to purchase on demand and shorten stocking cycles.
The year-on-year increase in rayon yarn was only 3.17%, significantly lagging behind the 9.06% increase in viscose staple fiber, indicating that profit margins in the rayon yarn segment are being compressed. This suggests that downstream dyeing and garment factories may face price increase pressure from suppliers when purchasing rayon fabrics.