The polyester POY quotes in early July 2026 sent a subtle signal to the market. For the mainstream specification 150D/48F semi-dull, Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 8,200 yuan/ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 8,050 yuan/ton, a spread of 150 yuan/ton. In past volatile markets, the spread for the same specification could widen to over 300 yuan. The current relatively narrow gap suggests that upstream and downstream players are tentatively finding a new equilibrium.
Capacity and Operating Rates: Rational Supply-Side Adjustment
Looking at the industrial belt distribution, the two quoting companies are located in Hangzhou and Shaoxing, both within the Xiaoshan-Shaoxing polyester cluster. This region concentrates about 40% of the country's polyester filament capacity, making its quotes a bellwether for the industry. In the first half of 2026, about 1.2 million tons of new polyester POY capacity was added domestically, but the effective utilization rate was less than 70%, as some new units delayed startup due to squeezed margins. Industry data shows that by end-May, the average POY operating rate had dropped to 86% from 92% in Q1, further declining to 83% by mid-June. This proactive supply contraction provided floor support for prices.
Meanwhile, downstream weaving mills have also changed their stocking strategies. Operating rates in major weaving bases like Shengze, Changxing, and Changshu hovered between 68% and 72% in June, down 5 percentage points year-on-year. End-user orders remain short-cycle and small-lot, with grey fabric inventory days generally above 25 days. This has kept mills on a "buy-as-needed" approach, reluctant to add leverage. POY plant sales-to-production ratios have thus lingered in the 70-80% range, unable to sustain significant destocking.
Cost Transmission: Support from PTA and MEG
On the cost side, upstream PTA and MEG price trends offer another explanation. In June 2026, the average spot price of PTA hovered around 5,800 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from May; MEG stabilized near 4,400 yuan/ton, with monthly change under 1%. This narrow fluctuation locked POY polymerization costs in the 7,200-7,400 yuan/ton range. At an ex-factory price of 8,200 yuan/ton, theoretical per-ton profit for POY stands at about 800-1,000 yuan, at the lower-middle end of the industry range but not enough to trigger large-scale production cuts.
Polyester plants' choice to "maintain price and volume" rather than "cut prices to grab orders" reflects expectations of seasonal demand recovery in Q3. July-August typically marks the start of stocking for autumn/winter fabrics. If end-brand apparel orders accelerate, POY prices may find support in the 8,000-8,500 yuan/ton range. Conversely, sustained weakness in overseas orders could pressure prices below the 8,000 yuan threshold.
Regional Spread: Logistics Costs vs. Customer Stickiness
The 150 yuan/ton spread between Rongsheng and Juxing is not simply a quality difference but reflects regional market structure. Rongsheng, based in Xiaoshan, Hangzhou, can ship directly to southern weaving clusters like Fujian and Guangdong via river-sea intermodal transport, enjoying lower logistics costs. Shaoxing-based Juxing primarily serves local circular knitting markets with stable but price-sensitive customers. Such geographic and relationship-based spreads typically remain in the 100-200 yuan/ton range during stable periods.
Worth noting: if the spread consistently exceeds 200 yuan/ton, cross-regional arbitrage could emerge—traders might buy from Shaoxing and ship to markets beyond Xiaoshan or Shaoxing, forcing higher-quoted suppliers to adjust downward. The current spread has not yet triggered arbitrage, indicating a fragile balance.