On July 3, 2026, the textile raw material market presented a sharply contrasting picture: PTA and cotton inched up, while acrylonitrile plunged nearly 2%, with polyester staple fiber and DTY also weakening. The overall daily average change of -0.14% masks a structural shift in pricing power along the supply chain.
Raw Material Price Divergence: Polyester Under Pressure, Cotton Holds Firm
On the gainers' list, PTA posted a modest 0.17% increase to 5,696.34 yuan/ton, up 13.22% year-on-year. Cotton followed with a 0.05% rise to 17,790.67 yuan/ton, marking a 17.05% annual gain. These upticks do not signal a broad demand recovery. PTA's support stems from tightened upstream PX costs and reduced supply due to plant maintenance. Cotton's resilience is tied to new crop output expectations and a slower pace of reserve cotton releases—weather disruptions and reduced acreage continue to underpin prices.
The decliners' list was more striking. Acrylonitrile plunged 1.99% to 9,833.33 yuan/ton, though still up 22.92% year-on-year. The sharp drop has made downstream acrylic and ABS processors cautious about procurement. Polyester staple fiber fell 0.34% to 7,255.83 yuan/ton, polyester DTY dropped 0.13% to 9,306.25 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY slipped 0.10%. The collective weakness in the polyester chain points to a common cause: sluggish growth in end-use garment orders and declining operating rates in weaving mills, reducing demand for both staple and filament.
Chain Transmission: From Broad Rally to Divergence
Over the past year, textile raw materials experienced a cost-driven broad rally. PTA, cotton, and acrylonitrile all posted year-on-year gains above 13%, with spandex surging 21.09%. But entering late Q2 2026, this logic is breaking down. Upstream crude oil volatility has squeezed margins in the PX-PTA chain, while downstream textile and apparel export data show marginal slowdowns after overseas inventory restocking ended, with domestic consumption failing to provide sufficient impetus.
The divergence reflects a tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand. PTA and cotton gains are largely supply-side narratives—PTA via maintenance cuts, cotton via output expectations. The declines in acrylonitrile and polyester, however, expose the true state of demand. For textile enterprises, procurement strategies must shift from 'hoarding for gains' to 'just-in-time selection' to avoid margin inversion between high-cost raw materials and low-priced finished goods.
Regional Responses: Inventory Pressure and Wait-and-See
In the Shengze textile cluster, polyester filament inventories have climbed to over 20 days, with some weaving mills actively reducing operating rates. In the Keqiao market, greige fabric turnover has slowed, and traders show reluctance to replenish polyester-based fabrics, preferring pure cotton or blends to hedge against polyester price volatility. The Nantong home textile cluster remains relatively stable, as home textile orders are mostly demand-driven and cotton yarn prices hold steady in the 23,400-24,725 yuan/ton range.
The acrylonitrile plunge directly impacts acrylic fiber producers in Shandong and Zhejiang. Some plants have postponed raw material purchases, waiting for prices to stabilize. Meanwhile, PTA's slight uptick has not boosted polyester mill confidence; instead, the concurrent decline in polyester products indicates margins are being squeezed from both upstream and downstream.