Polyester POY Prices Under Pressure: Industrial Zone Divergence Amid Inventory-Cost Game

In early July 2026, polyester POY (150D/48F semi-dull grade) showed a price gap of 150 RMB/ton between two core production zones in Zhejiang: Rongsheng Petrochemical's Hangzhou plant quoted 8,200 RMB/ton, while Juxing Chemical Fiber in Shaoxing offered only 8,050 RMB/ton. This seemingly small differential reflects the delicate balancing act across the polyester supply chain.

Regional Supply-Demand Dynamics

Both zones belong to Zhejiang's polyester cluster, but inventory structures differ. Rongsheng, as a large integrated refiner, enjoys high PTA self-sufficiency and stronger cost control, allowing firmer pricing. Shaoxing's smaller mills rely more on purchased raw materials and are more pressured by recent PX volatility, leading to more aggressive destocking. On the raw material side, early July PTA spot prices hovered around 5,800 RMB/ton, down about 200 RMB/ton from mid-June, directly squeezing POY processing margins. Industry data shows POY cash margins have narrowed to 200-300 RMB/ton, with some less efficient plants nearing breakeven.

Weakening Downstream Demand

Entering the traditional Q3 slack season, Jiangsu-Zhejiang weaving mill operating rates have fallen to around 65%, down nearly 10 percentage points from the Q2 peak. End-brand orders are mostly for essential replenishment, with few bulk purchases. This 'buy-as-needed' mentality has passed upstream to POY procurement, keeping market transactions small and sporadic. Notably, Shaoxing's concentration of small and medium weavers makes it more price-sensitive, explaining why Juxing's quote is closer to the market floor, while Hangzhou's large mills, with higher direct-supply ratios and stronger customer loyalty, adjust prices more cautiously.

Q3 Outlook: Range-bound with Floor Support

Looking ahead to July-September, POY prices will likely oscillate within the 7,900-8,300 RMB/ton range. Downside risk comes from new PTA capacity releases that could collapse costs; upside support lies in polyester plants' willingness to cut production to stabilize prices—some have already planned maintenance shutdowns in mid-July. For exporters, current RMB exchange rate fluctuations and overseas trade barriers (e.g., EU CBAM) add uncertainty. As POY price changes typically lag by 1-2 months in passing through to fabric and garment stages, exporters should lock in raw material costs early.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Stick to just-in-time procurement in the short term; avoid heavy stockpiling before late July. Monitor whether PTA prices break below 5,700 RMB/ton. If the price gap widens beyond 200 RMB/ton, prioritize Shaoxing sources but verify product quality consistency. Watch for polyester plant shutdown announcements—once maintenance schedules become dense, consider increasing inventory moderately.

For Exporters - Include raw-material price linkage clauses in contracts to partially transfer POY volatility risk to downstream clients. Use forward exchange contracts to lock in rates and reduce RMB fluctuation impact on export margins. Monitor growing overseas demand for recycled polyester and consider early deployment of r-POY product lines.