During the 26th week of 2026 (June 29 to July 3), the bulk textile commodity market presented a rare 'fire and ice' pattern. **Cotton prices surged 2.34% week-on-week, closing at 17,790.67 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 17.05%**, making it the only commodity to record a weekly gain. Meanwhile, the chemical fiber chain turned almost entirely red: acrylonitrile, polyester staple fiber, and PTA fell 2.96%, 2.21%, and 1.54%, respectively. Cotton yarn, viscose staple fiber, spandex, and nylon series remained flat, resulting in an overall weekly average decline of 0.4% for the sector.
The Logic Behind Cotton's Strength: Supply Reduction Expectations and Cost Pass-Through
The core driver of cotton's counter-trend rally comes from the supply side. The 2026/27 planting area in the main Xinjiang production region is confirmed to have shrunk, compounded by high temperatures and drought during the critical growth period in some cotton areas, leading to an upward revision of market expectations for new crop production cuts. **Spot cotton holders are reluctant to sell, while downstream spinning mills are forced to replenish inventories for just-in-time needs, pushing prices higher.** However, it is worth noting that cotton yarn prices did not follow suit—21S and 32S cotton yarn quotes remained flat at 23,400 yuan/ton and 24,725 yuan/ton, respectively, compared to the previous week. This means that the cotton price increase has not yet been effectively passed through to end products, further squeezing spinners' profit margins.
Chemical Fiber Chain Under Pressure: Overcapacity and Raw Material Collapse
In stark contrast to cotton, the chemical fiber sector is undergoing a clear destocking pressure. **PTA prices fell 1.54% week-on-week to 5,696.34 yuan/ton, with the year-on-year gain narrowing to 13.22%.** Upstream PX supply is ample, combined with high operating rates in the PTA industry, accelerating inventory accumulation. Polyester staple fiber fell even more sharply, dropping 2.21% to 7,255.83 yuan/ton. Inventory pressure at staple fiber plants has already transmitted downstream, with weaving mills showing weak purchasing appetite and mainly consuming existing stocks. Acrylonitrile led the decline across the board, falling 2.96% to 9,833.33 yuan/ton. **The drop in acrylonitrile is mainly dragged by weaker propylene raw material prices and sluggish ABS resin demand, while expectations of new capacity additions in the industry are also weighing on market sentiment.**
Transmission Effects of Price Divergence on the Supply Chain
The divergence between cotton and chemical fiber prices has distinctly different impacts on companies at various stages. For pure cotton spinners, **rising raw material costs coupled with stagnant yarn prices mean processing margins are severely squeezed**, potentially forcing some small and medium-sized enterprises to cut production or shift to blended products. For chemical fiber weaving companies, lower raw material costs are beneficial in the short term, but insufficient end-demand makes it difficult to sell products at profitable prices, and the risk of inventory depreciation cannot be ignored. Notably, **nylon series (DTY, FDY, POY), viscose staple fiber, and spandex all held flat this week**, reflecting a relatively balanced supply-demand situation for these varieties, but downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong. The future price direction depends on whether end-demand can improve before the traditional peak 'Golden September and Silver October' season.