The July 3 price list of textile raw materials sends a clear signal: the market is shifting from broad-based gains to structural divergence. Among the 17 monitored products, only PTA and cotton posted marginal increases of 0.17% and 0.05%, respectively. Acrylonitrile led the decline with a 1.99% drop, followed by polyester staple fiber (-0.34%) and polyester DTY (-0.13%). The average daily change was -0.14%, indicating most products are either flat or trending downward.
Upstream Cost Pass-Through vs. Weak Downstream Demand
PTA's slight rise may seem insignificant, but its year-on-year gain of 13.22% shows a significantly higher price base compared to last year. This is partly due to cost support from upstream crude oil and partly reflects the stronger bargaining power of the polyester upstream. However, the simultaneous decline in polyester staple fiber and polyester DTY suggests that weaving and garment manufacturers are reducing purchasing willingness. Polyester staple fiber fell 0.34% daily, with a year-on-year gain of only 7.52%, far below PTA's annual increase, indicating compressed profit margins.
Cotton's minimal rise (+0.05%) contrasts with flat cotton yarn prices. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S showed no movement, with year-on-year gains of 6.5%-7.5%, significantly lower than cotton's 17.05% annual increase. This implies spinning mills failed to pass on cost increases downstream, squeezing their profits. Viscose staple fiber, rayon yarn, and spandex remained flat. Spandex's year-on-year gain of 21.09% is high, but the current plateau may signal demand saturation.
Acrylonitrile's Sharp Drop: Short-Term Correction Pressure
Acrylonitrile posted the largest daily decline at 1.99%, despite a year-on-year increase of 22.92%. Such a sharp drop against a high annual base often indicates a shift in short-term supply-demand dynamics—possibly due to inventory releases, weakening downstream demand for acrylic or ABS resin, or easing propylene prices. For the textile industry, acrylonitrile is a key raw material for acrylic fibers and some carbon fiber precursors. Its price volatility quickly transmits to acrylic yarn markets, affecting the cost structure of winter fabrics and wool-like products.
Nylon series products (DTY, FDY, POY) all remained flat, with year-on-year gains of 5.5%-9%, representing moderate increases. This is linked to stable caprolactam supply and reflects the rigid demand for nylon in sportswear and leisure fabrics. However, prolonged flatness also suggests a lack of new upward drivers.
The Polyester Chain's Scissor Gap Risk
From PTA to polyester staple fiber, FDY, and DTY, the price transmission across the chain shows clear disconnects. PTA is up 13.22% year-on-year, polyester FDY is up 15.82%, but polyester staple fiber and DTY have annual gains of only 7.52% and 10.87%, respectively. This means the closer to the end fabric stage, the weaker the pricing power. For weaving mills, raw material costs are rising, but finished fabric prices have limited room for negotiation, squeezing margins from both sides.
Under this scenario, small and medium-sized weaving mills may be forced to reduce operating rates or switch to cheaper alternative raw materials. Exporters face a dilemma: overseas customers are reluctant to accept price increases, but maintaining current prices will further erode their own gross margins.