On July 3, 2026, the domestic polyester DTY (150D/48F, semi-dull low-elastic) market exhibited a noteworthy signal: products of the same specification and grade showed a price spread of 150 CNY/ton between different companies. Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 9,150 CNY/ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 9,000 CNY/ton. Such a spread is uncommon and points not to individual price adjustments but to structural changes occurring across the industrial chain.
Raw Material Costs and Inventory Pressure
PTA and MEG are the direct upstream materials for polyester DTY. Entering the end of Q2, spot PTA prices fell about 3%-5% from earlier highs, while MEG came under pressure due to accumulated port inventories. This cost-side weakness directly undermined the price-supporting confidence of polyester filament yarn producers. Meanwhile, industry public data shows that finished goods inventory days at polyester filament yarn mills rose from 15 days to around 20 days in June. Some producers, to ease working capital pressure, began adopting flexible 'per-order' pricing strategies. The price gap between Rongsheng and Juxing is a direct reflection of this strategic divergence.
Downstream Weaving Mill Operating Rate Divergence
The demand side presents a more complex picture. The comprehensive operating rate of weaving mills in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region hovers around 68%, but domestic and export orders show different trajectories. The domestic market, affected by summer high-temperature power curbs and weak end-consumer apparel demand, has slowed the digestion of grey fabric inventories. In contrast, export orders driven by restocking demand in Southeast Asia continue to generate inquiries for differentiated varieties like cationic DTY and flame-retardant DTY. This divergence results in relatively flat demand for standard-specification polyester DTY (e.g., 150D/48F), forcing companies to lower prices to secure orders.
Regional Industrial Belt Transmission Effects
Rongsheng Petrochemical is based in Hangzhou, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber is in Shaoxing—less than 100 km apart—yet the price difference reflects subtle variations in regional industrial belts. Shaoxing, home to the China Textile City, hosts a weaving cluster that is highly sensitive to raw material prices, making companies more inclined to liquidate inventory quickly to maintain cash flow. In contrast, chemical fiber companies in the Hangzhou area, benefiting from larger integrated polyester production capacities, possess stronger bargaining power vis-à-vis downstream customers. This regional price divergence may intensify arbitrage activities among traders in the short term, pushing prices toward the lower end of the range.
Q3 Price Expectations and Operational Recommendations
Historically, July-August is a traditional off-season for textiles, and polyester DTY prices often face downward pressure. This year, combined with a weak raw material side and rising inventories, the average Q3 price is likely to fluctuate within the 8,800-9,200 CNY/ton range. However, two variables warrant attention: first, PTA plants have scheduled concentrated maintenance in August; if the maintenance exceeds expectations, the cost side may gain temporary support. Second, the pace of restocking by overseas orders before September—if Southeast Asian demand rebounds, the price resilience of differentiated varieties will be stronger than that of standard varieties.