Polyester POY Prices Fall Below Cost: Chemical Fiber Chain Enters Active De-stocking Phase

On July 3, 2026, spot prices for polyester POY (150D/48F semi-dull) in the East China market narrowed to 8050-8200 yuan/ton. Rongsheng Petrochemical offered 8200 yuan/ton, while Juxing Chemical quoted 8050 yuan/ton. This represents a drop of about 6.4% from early June's 8600 yuan/ton and has fallen below the cash cost line (approximately 8300 yuan/ton) for most small and medium POY mills.

Twin Blows: Cost Collapse and Demand Weakness

The immediate trigger for the price decline came from upstream. PX prices fell 5.8% in June due to lower international oil prices and higher domestic refinery operating rates, directly weakening PTA's cost support. PTA spot prices dropped from 6200 yuan/ton in early June to 5850 yuan/ton currently, a decline of 5.6%. This means POY mills' raw material procurement costs fell by about 350 yuan/ton in just one month.

However, cost-side benefits did not translate into profit margins. After the traditional off-season began in late June, downstream weaving operating rates fell sharply from 73% to 65%, and rates for circular looms and water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces dropped below 60%. End-user orders were mainly short-term and small-lot, with fabric mills purchasing POY only for immediate production needs, showing extremely low willingness to stockpile.

Inventory Pressure Transmits Through Industrial Clusters

Factory inventories in the two core POY production areas of Shaoxing and Xiaoshan have climbed to 25-30 days, well above the industry warning line of 15 days. The trader channel is also under pressure, with some small and medium traders starting panic selling in late June, offering prices 100-150 yuan/ton below factory ex-factory prices. This pattern of "mills holding prices, traders slashing" has further intensified market pessimism.

Notably, industry leaders such as Rongsheng Petrochemical and Tongkun Group have not engaged in large-scale price cuts to destock. Instead, they are adjusting product mix—increasing the proportion of fine-denier and differentiated POY—to maintain margins. This has made the supply-demand contradiction for conventional 150D/48F specifications more acute, with price declines far exceeding those of other specifications.

Q3 Price Outlook and Operational Windows

Historically, POY prices are usually at their lowest in July-August. This year, with new PX capacity coming online (domestic PX capacity is expected to increase by 1.2 million tons/year in Q3), there is still room for cost-side declines. However, since POY prices are already below cost, the potential for further deep declines is limited.

Based on supply-demand modeling, Q3 POY prices are likely to bottom out in the 7800-8200 yuan/ton range. If downstream weaving operating rates recover to above 70% in late July, prices could stabilize and rebound by mid-August.

For Buyers - Shorten procurement cycles to 3-5 days, avoid bulk stockpiling, and use futures point-price tools to lock in forward low-price contracts. - Focus on destocking opportunities from Shaoxing and Xiaoshan traders; consider small trial bottom-fishing but limit single purchases to no more than 15 days' usage.

For Mills - Reduce output or switch to higher-value-added varieties (e.g., cationic dyeable POY, flame-retardant POY) to relieve inventory pressure on conventional 150D/48F. - Sign "price compensation agreements" with downstream fabric mills, promising priority supply at original prices if future prices rise, in exchange for stable orders.