Price Divergence in Textile Raw Materials: What Does a Nearly 2% Drop in Acrylonitrile Signal?

On July 3, 2026, the textile raw material market showed clear divergence. PTA and cotton rose 0.17% and 0.05% respectively, while acrylonitrile plunged 1.99%, dragging down polyester staple fiber, DTY, and FDY. This pattern reflects supply-demand mismatches and cost transmission logic across the chemical fiber chain.

Upstream Resilience: PTA and Cotton

PTA closed at 5696.34 CNY/ton, up 13.22% year-on-year, supported by high PX costs and refinery maintenance. Cotton hit 17790.67 CNY/ton, up 17.05% YoY, driven by Xinjiang production cut expectations and rigid restocking demand. Both exhibit supply-side rigidity rather than broad demand recovery.

Viscose, spandex, and nylon series remained flat. Spandex’s 21.09% YoY gain indicates prior momentum has been exhausted, now in high-level consolidation. For buyers, this means limited upside but also limited downside in the near term.

Downstream Chemical Fibers: Acrylonitrile Leads Decline

Acrylonitrile fell nearly 2% to 9833.33 CNY/ton, despite a 22.92% YoY increase. The sharp drop stems from lower operating rates in acrylic fiber and ABS sectors, inventory buildup, and new capacity expectations. This signals weaker downstream demand than anticipated, potentially pressuring upstream feedstocks.

Polyester staple fiber dropped 0.34%, DTY 0.13%, and FDY 0.10%. These declines reflect both weakening PTA support and sluggish weaving demand. Jiangsu-Zhejiang loom operating rates hover around 60%, forcing mills to cut prices to destock. For textile exporters, lower polyester prices may reduce procurement costs short-term, but sustained declines could trigger order delays.

Cotton and Viscose: Stability with Hidden Risks

Cotton yarn 21S and 32S held at 23,400 and 24,725 CNY/ton respectively, up 6.5-7.5% YoY. Viscose staple fiber stayed at 14,200 CNY/ton, up 9.06% YoY. Stability in cotton yarn reflects high cotton costs and subdued grey fabric trading. However, dissolving pulp prices have softened, posing a risk of viscose correction.

Overall, the textile sector averaged -0.14% daily change, with declining varieties outnumbering gainers two-to-one, indicating a bearish undertone. Yet divergence creates structural opportunities.

Practical Advice

For Buyers - Monitor further acrylonitrile declines for potential price adjustments in acrylic and carbon fiber products; consider delaying purchases. - Polyester staple fiber and DTY are in a downtrend; stagger purchases and avoid large fixed-price orders. For long-cycle orders, negotiate floating-price contracts. - For stable items like spandex and viscose, maintain normal replenishment without panic buying.

For Mills - Polyester filament inventory pressure is rising; prioritize destocking and shift product mix toward differentiated, high-value varieties. - Cotton mills should closely track Xinjiang cotton procurement and reserve release policies. If cotton breaks 18,000 CNY/ton, consider hedging. - Acrylonitrile-related lines (acrylic, ABS) may reduce operating rates to avoid inventory buildup while enhancing byproduct recovery to lower costs.