In the first five months of 2026, China's wool textile trade data sent a strong signal: the import growth rate of raw materials (26.65%) far exceeded export growth (2.29%), creating the largest gap in recent years. This is not simply about supply and demand fluctuations but a structural shift in global wool trade patterns—spinning capacity expansion in emerging markets is reshaping how China's wool textile chain sources raw materials.
Import Surge: Rising Wool Prices and Strong Restocking Demand
According to official customs data, China's total imports of wool textile raw materials and products from January to May 2026 reached $1.71 billion (RMB 11.87 billion), up 26.65% year-on-year. Wool and primary processed wool accounted for the core increase, with imports hitting $1.1 billion, up 34.04%. Notably, import volume stood at 130,000 tons, flat compared to last year. This indicates that the increase in import value was driven by rising international wool spot prices rather than volume.
For domestic wool textile mills, this means rising raw material costs. However, the stable import volume suggests that downstream capacity utilization remains high and order expectations are optimistic. This "price up, volume stable" combination typically occurs when mid-stream capacity is running at high levels and orders are solid. For cashmere deep-processing and worsted fabric companies, this round of price hikes may further squeeze margins, but it also pushes them toward higher-value products.
Export Divergence: Traditional Markets Falter, India and Turkey Emerge
Compared to imports, the export side was more complex. Total exports of wool textile raw materials and products reached $4.35 billion, up 2.29% in USD terms, but down 1.01% in RMB terms. While exchange rate fluctuations played a role, the structural shift is more noteworthy: exports of high-end natural fiber products like wool and cashmere grew 5.11% and 6.97% respectively, while bulk low-value products performed weakly.
The real highlight came from emerging markets. Orders from India and Turkey surged: China exported 9,086 tons of wool tops to India, up 77.22%, and 1,165 tons to Turkey, up 54.69%. Wool tops are semi-finished products for spinning, and their export surge directly reflects the strong expansion of textile industries in South Asia and the Middle East. India's Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and Turkey's benefits from European near-shoring are driving both countries to rapidly build spinning capacity, boosting demand for upstream semi-finished goods.
Industry Impact: Reshaping Global Wool Supply
The deeper implication is that China's wool textile industry is shifting from "finished product export dependency" to a "semi-finished product + raw material two-way flow." On one hand, domestic companies continue to export finished fabrics and cashmere products; on the other, more wool tops are flowing to India and Turkey, which are becoming new hubs for global spinning.
For domestic wool primary processors, this brings both opportunities and challenges. Opportunities lie in stable incremental orders from emerging markets, especially for wool tops. Challenges come from the risk that if India and Turkey expand spinning capacity further, they may eventually squeeze China's finished fabric market. Additionally, global wool supply is restructuring—supply fluctuations from Australia and New Zealand, plus uncertainties in South American wool production, make import prices prone to increases.