Polyester POY Price Easing: Regional Quotation Divergence and Industrial Logic

On July 3, 2026, domestic polyester POY (150D/48F semi-dull) quotations showed significant regional divergence: Rongsheng Petrochemical's ex-factory price in Hangzhou was 8,200 yuan/ton, while Juxing Chemical in Shaoxing offered only 8,050 yuan/ton, a spread of 150 yuan/ton. This price gap is not accidental; it reflects structural adjustments in the chemical fiber industry chain under the triple pressures of raw material costs, regional capacity, and downstream demand.

Industrial Causes of Regional Price Divergence

From a regional perspective, Hangzhou's Xiaoshan district (where Rongsheng is based) and Shaoxing's Keqiao district (where Juxing operates) have significantly different industrial ecosystems despite geographic proximity. Rongsheng, as a leading integrated enterprise with a complete PTA-polyester-spinning chain, prices more in line with raw material costs and operating rates. In contrast, Shaoxing hosts numerous small and medium-sized POY plants with dense capacity and high homogeneity, making them more prone to price cuts to reduce inventory during weak demand.

Public data shows that since Q2 2026, PTA prices have weakened, and PX import quotes have fluctuated downward, providing room for POY price reductions. However, the varying magnitude of price cuts across regions stems more from respective inventory pressures and market strategies. The high industrial clustering in Shaoxing leads to more direct price competition and faster price transmission.

Impact on Downstream Weaving and Trade

As a precursor product to polyester filament yarn, POY price trends directly affect the procurement costs of downstream draw-textured yarn (DTY) and weaving mills. The current 150 yuan/ton regional spread means a medium-sized weaving mill purchasing 100 tons can save about 15,000 yuan per batch. This encourages some buyers to compare prices across regions and even split long-term contracts into spot purchases to capture short-term price arbitrage.

However, from an industry-wide perspective, POY price easing does not signal a demand recovery. National Bureau of Statistics data indicates that retail sales of end-use consumer goods such as apparel and home textiles slowed to 3.2% year-on-year growth in the first five months of 2026, below the previous year. Downstream weaving mill operating rates hover around 60%, with procurement strategies focused on "buy-as-needed" and little willingness to build inventory, weakening demand support for POY factories.

Inventory and Profit Challenges for Factories

For POY producers, the current situation is not optimistic. On one hand, raw material costs have declined, but not as fast as product prices, compressing processing margins. Industry data shows that average POY processing profit fell below 150 yuan/ton in June 2026, with some small factories near breakeven. On the other hand, regional price-cutting competitions exacerbate market chaos, forcing some firms to reduce prices for cash flow, further deteriorating industry profitability.

Notably, these price cuts have not effectively destocked. Due to slower downstream procurement, factory finished goods inventories have accumulated. Industry estimates suggest that as of early July, POY social inventory days have rebounded to 15-18 days, above normal levels. If demand remains weak, broader production cuts or maintenance shutdowns may be inevitable.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Leverage regional price spreads to compare across provinces, prioritizing lower-priced zones like Shaoxing for medium-sized suppliers, while factoring in logistics costs to final delivered prices. - During raw material downturns, reduce long-term contract ratios to below 50% and increase spot procurement to flexibly capture short-term low-price windows. - Monitor PTA futures and PX import trends; if raw materials continue weakening, POY may have further room to fall, allowing buyers to defer some purchases to late July.

For Factories (POY Producers) - For highly homogeneous standard specifications (e.g., 150D/48F), actively reduce production or switch to differentiated varieties (cationic dyeable, flame-retardant, antibacterial functional POY) to avoid price wars. - Strengthen direct supply partnerships with downstream texturizing and weaving mills, reducing intermediate inventory accumulation, and lock in partial profits through order pre-sales. - In regions with intense competition, collaborate with local peers on production cuts to stabilize prices, preventing vicious price reductions that lead to industry-wide losses.