PTA Edges Up, Acrylonitrile Plunges: Analyzing Divergent Signals in Textile Raw Material Market in Early July

In early July, the divergence in textile raw material prices became increasingly pronounced. According to data from July 3, 2026, only two of 17 major bulk textile commodities posted gains: PTA and cotton. Acrylonitrile plunged 1.99%, while polyester staple fiber and DTY fell 0.34% and 0.13%, respectively. The average daily change was -0.14%, indicating overall weakness.

Raw Material Divergence: Support for Cotton and PTA

PTA edged up 0.17% to 5,696.34 yuan/ton, up 13.22% year-on-year. This resilience stems from upstream PX cost support and high polyester operating rates. Despite lackluster end-user demand, rigid restocking by polyester mills provided a floor for PTA prices.

Cotton rose 0.05% to 17,790.67 yuan/ton, up 17.05% year-on-year. The strength came from tight supply expectations. Domestic commercial cotton inventories are at low levels, and the gap before new cotton arrives has strengthened ginners' and traders' willingness to hold prices. However, cotton yarn prices have been flat, with 21S and 32S at 23,400 and 24,725 yuan/ton, suggesting spinners' acceptance of high-priced cotton is declining.

Acrylonitrile Plunge: Capacity Release Meets Weak Demand

Acrylonitrile fell 1.99% to 9,833.33 yuan/ton, the biggest daily loser. Although still up 22.92% year-on-year, it has retreated significantly from earlier highs. Since Q2 2026, several new acrylonitrile plants have started up, adding supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream acrylic fiber and ABS resin demand has been tepid, accelerating inventory buildup.

For the textile industry, lower acrylonitrile prices ease cost pressure on acrylic fiber and carbon fiber precursors. But given weak acrylic fiber demand from substitution and sluggish apparel consumption, cost relief may not translate into margin improvement.

Polyester Chain: Staple Fiber Follows Down, Filament Diverges

Polyester staple fiber fell 0.34% to 7,255.83 yuan/ton, DTY dropped 0.13% to 9,306.25 yuan/ton, and FDY edged down 0.10%. In contrast, POY and polyester yarn held steady. The divergence among filament varieties reflects different supply-demand dynamics.

The decline in staple fiber was driven by weakening demand for pure polyester and polyester-cotton yarns. Summer is a traditional off-season, with garment orders declining and weaving mill operating rates slipping. POY's stability came from some draw-texturing mills stocking up on dips.
## Nylon and Viscose: Stable Prices, Underlying Tensions

Nylon DTY, FDY, and POY prices were unchanged at 15,840, 16,300, and 13,650 yuan/ton, respectively. The nylon chain has been affected by caprolactam volatility, but chip margins remain acceptable, and downstream weaving purchases are mostly need-based. Viscose staple fiber and spandex also held steady, at 14,200 and 29,666.67 yuan/ton, up 9.06% and 21.09% year-on-year, respectively. Spandex's high level is due to rising BDO costs and low operating rates.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - For polyester materials, prices are at a cyclical high; keep inventory cycles short (within 15 days) and avoid stockpiling during the off-season. - For cotton, watch for pullbacks in Zhengzhou futures; tight supply before the new crop will persist, but limited yarn price follow-through may cap upside. - For acrylonitrile, downstream acrylic fiber buyers can wait for price stabilization, as further downside pressure is expected through mid-to-late July.

For Exporters - Include price lock clauses for key raw materials like PTA and cotton in export contracts to hedge against cost volatility. - Monitor RMB exchange rate trends; diverging raw material prices may increase profit volatility. Use forward contracts for hedging. - For acrylic products using acrylonitrile, consider lowering export quotes to win orders, but ensure profit margins are protected.