On July 3, 2026, the polyester DTY (150D/48F semi-dull low-elastic) market showed an unusual price divergence: Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 9,150 yuan/ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 9,000 yuan/ton, a spread of 150 yuan/ton for the same specification. This is not an isolated adjustment but a signal of a broken transmission chain from upstream to downstream.
Capacity Release and Price Divergence
On the supply side, Rongsheng Petrochemical, as an industry leader, typically sets the price tone. The 9,150 yuan/ton level is roughly flat from last month, indicating that major producers are still trying to stabilize prices. However, Zhejiang Juxing's low-price strategy reveals the compromise of smaller firms under inventory pressure.
- In the first half of 2026, about 1.2 million tons of new polyester filament capacity came online, with DTY accounting for about 35%.
- Industry average operating rates fell from 82% in May to 76% in June, but inventory days rose from 18 to 22.
- Juxing, located in Shaoxing, faces a weaving cluster operating rate below 65%, well below the 75% level a year ago.
This suggests that even if large mills do not cut prices, regional oversupply has forced some players to offer discounts first.
Reversal of Downstream Procurement Logic
In the past three years, DTY prices closely tracked weaving demand. But in this cycle, fabric traders have adopted a 'buy-as-needed' strategy, with stockpiling intentions at a low point.
- In Shengze, water-jet loom operating rates are only 68%, down 7 percentage points year-on-year.
- Grey fabric inventories average 35 days, squeezing cash flow and forcing mills to lower raw material purchase prices.
- Apparel brands have shortened order lead times to 15 days, forcing fabric suppliers to minimize buffer stocks.
This 'de-stocking' consensus directly weakens the basis for DTY price increases. Rongsheng's price stabilization is more psychological support; once downstream wait-and-see persists, the risk of a catch-up decline will accumulate quickly.
Industrial Implications of Regional Price Spread
Hangzhou and Shaoxing are both in the Xiaoshan-Shaoxing industrial belt, yet a 150 yuan/ton price gap for DTY is rare in the past two years. The logic behind it:
- Large Hangzhou mills often have integrated upstream PTA and PX units, with over 80% self-sufficiency in raw materials, giving them stronger cost control.
- Smaller Shaoxing firms rely on external PTA purchases; spot PTA fell from 4,800 yuan/ton to 4,650 yuan/ton, but processing margins remain squeezed.
- Logistics cost difference: freight from Hangzhou to Shaoxing is about 30 yuan/ton, insufficient to explain the 150 yuan gap.
The key variable is inventory pressure. In the Shaoxing region where Juxing operates, downstream weaving orders are down 12% year-on-year, forcing companies to exchange volume for price.
Q3 Outlook: Bottom Not Yet Confirmed
From a chain perspective, PTA is showing signs of accumulation. Early July social inventories reached 2.8 million tons, up 150,000 tons from June. If PTA prices break below 4,500 yuan/ton, DTY's room for concessions will widen further.
- July-August is traditionally a slow season; weaving operating rates could fall below 60%.
- The theoretical processing margin for DTY is currently about 1,200 yuan/ton; if it drops below 1,000 yuan/ton, some high-cost capacity may be forced to shut down.
- On exports, US tariff hikes are curbing polyester fabric exports; May shipments to North America fell 8% year-on-year.
Overall, the 9,000 yuan/ton level may not be the year's low, but major mills' price-stabilizing actions will slow the decline.