On July 3, 2026, a rare rift emerged in POY quotes from Zhejiang's chemical fiber hubs: Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 8,200 yuan/ton, while Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 8,050 yuan/ton, a gap of 150 yuan/ton. This seemingly minor difference reveals the iceberg of supply-demand imbalance in the current chemical fiber market.
Industrial Logic Behind Price Divergence
Both companies are in Zhejiang, producing the same 150D/48F semi-dull premium POY, yet the quote difference exceeds normal regional freight costs. This suggests that despite a seemingly unified market price list, substantial divergence has emerged in cost control, inventory pressure, and customer structure among firms. Rongsheng, as an integrated leader, typically sets industry benchmarks, while Juxing's lower quote hints that small and medium enterprises (SMEs) may adopt aggressive sales strategies under destocking pressure.
Industry data shows current POY prices have fallen 5-8% from year-to-date highs, but downstream weaving mills remain cautious. Weaving clusters in Shaoxing and Xiaoshan operate at about 70% capacity, with new orders featuring short-term and small-lot characteristics. Mills adopt a 'just-in-time' procurement strategy, refusing to build safety stock. This has pushed POY inventory days from the normal 15 to over 20, straining cash flow for some SMEs.
Deep-Seated Causes of Supply-Demand Mismatch
The direct driver of POY price decline is the cost collapse of raw materials PTA and MEG. In H1 2026, international crude oil fluctuated widely, and new PX capacity was released, dragging PTA spot prices from 5,800 yuan/ton in early 2026 to around 5,200 yuan/ton. But the more critical factor is weak demand—terminal apparel export orders, affected by overseas destocking cycles, grew only 3% year-on-year, far below the 8% in H1 2025.
At the industrial cluster level, Zhejiang accounts for over 40% of national POY capacity. The current price divergence is essentially a growing pain during industry concentration: leading firms, with integrated value chains and long-term contract customers, maintain relatively stable pricing; SMEs, with compressed bargaining power, resort to price cuts for cash flow. If sustained, this will accelerate industry consolidation, forcing some obsolete capacity to exit.
Transmission Effects on Downstream Procurement
For weaving and fabric mills, the current low POY prices should be a good opportunity to build inventory, but actual procurement has not increased significantly. Two reasons: first, uncertainty in end-use orders makes mills hesitant to stockpile; second, grey fabric prices have weakened simultaneously, squeezing weaving margins to near-zero, where any raw material cost fluctuation can directly erode profits.
Notably, the regional price divergence is reshaping trade patterns. Some traders begin purchasing from Shaoxing at lower prices and distributing to Hangzhou and Jiaxing, capturing regional spreads. While this arbitrage activity temporarily activates the market, it further destabilizes the pricing system and raises default risks for long-term contract clients.