The 26th week of 2026 (June 29-July 3) saw a clear divergence in China's textile commodity market. While the overall average price change was -0.4%, cotton bucked the trend with a 2.34% weekly gain, while acrylic, polyester staple fiber, and PTA led the decline. This structural 'cotton strength, chemical fiber weakness' pattern reflects different supply-demand dynamics along the chain.
The Logic Behind Cotton's Strength
Cotton opened the week at 17,383.67 yuan/ton and closed at 17,790.67 yuan/ton, up 17.05% year-on-year. The rally is driven by tightening supply expectations and resilient demand. Global cotton production for 2025/26 has been revised down due to weather disruptions in major producing countries, while domestic commercial inventories remain at multi-year lows, prompting sellers to hold back. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were flat this week but up 7.50% and 6.57% year-on-year respectively, indicating downstream mills are absorbing higher cotton costs through inventory digestion and hand-to-mouth buying. For buyers, cotton is now at a seasonal high, limiting upside potential but offering little room for correction given the supply tightness.
Chemical Fiber Sector's Collective Pullback
In contrast to cotton's strength, the chemical fiber complex weakened broadly. Acrylonitrile fell the most, down 2.96% to 9,833.33 yuan/ton, though still up 22.92% year-on-year. The sharp drop signals weakening end-use demand. Polyester staple fiber declined 2.21%, PTA fell 1.54%, while polyester FDY and DTY dropped 1.27% and 0.53% respectively. These declines are not isolated but stem from softening upstream feedstock costs and falling downstream weaving mill operating rates. Since late June, comprehensive operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have slipped below 70% as new orders slow, pushing inventory pressure upstream. Notably, polyester POY prices held steady, suggesting draw-texturing margins remain viable, but sustained weakness in PTA and staple fiber could eventually drag POY lower.
Viscose and Spandex in a Holding Pattern
Viscose staple fiber and spandex prices were unchanged at 14,200 yuan/ton and 29,666.67 yuan/ton respectively. Viscose is up 9.06% year-on-year, spandex up 21.09%, both at relatively high levels. The flat prices indicate a standoff: upstream mills refuse to cut costs, while downstream buyers resist high prices given the difficulty in passing them through to finished goods like rayon yarn and covered yarn. Rayon yarn stayed flat at 17,925 yuan/ton, up only 3.17% year-on-year, far less than the rise in its raw material. This price scissors squeezes margins for small and medium spinning mills, pressuring cash flow.
Nylon and Raw Silk: Independent Trajectories
Nylon DTY, FDY, and POY all held steady at 15,840, 16,300, and 13,650 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year gains of 5.5%-9%. The stability reflects ample caprolactam supply and stable demand in nylon filament weaving, with no clear seasonal shift. Raw silk edged down 0.14% to 426,000 yuan/ton, the only product with a year-on-year decline (-9.72%). The weakness is tied to ample cocoon supply and weaker-than-expected silk export orders, putting destocking pressure on processors in Guangxi and Zhejiang.