Textile Raw Material Price Divergence Intensifies: PTA and Cotton Edge Up, Acrylonitrile Leads Decline at Nearly 2%

On July 3, 2026, textile commodity price monitoring data revealed a clear divergence: two products rose while four fell, with the average daily change dipping 0.14%. Behind these numbers lies a cost game and demand differentiation at the raw material end.

Price Divergence: Upstream Raw Materials vs. Intermediate Products

PTA and cotton rose 0.17% and 0.05%, reaching 5,696.34 CNY/ton and 17,790.67 CNY/ton respectively. Despite minimal daily gains, year-on-year increases were significant: PTA up 13.22%, cotton up 17.05%. This indicates a notable cost base shift over the past year, with downstream price transmission still incomplete.

Acrylonitrile led the decline at 1.99%, dropping below 10,000 CNY/ton to 9,833.33 CNY/ton. Polyester staple fiber and DTY fell 0.34% and 0.13%, while polyester FDY slipped 0.10%. Notably, acrylonitrile remains 22.92% higher year-on-year, suggesting the current pullback is short-term adjustment rather than a trend reversal.

Supply Chain Transmission: Chemical Fiber Under Pressure, Cotton Relatively Firm

Chemical fiber chains showed concentrated weakness. Three polyester varieties—staple fiber, DTY, and FDY—all declined, reflecting rising inventory pressure and weaker downstream weaving utilization. In contrast, cotton edged up, cotton yarns 21S and 32S held steady, and viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn remained stable, indicating continued support for cotton-based raw materials.

What does this divergence mean for buyers? Chemical fiber fabric costs (e.g., taffeta, pongee) may soften temporarily, while cotton fabric costs (e.g., poplin, canvas) remain rigid. For blended products, companies need to dynamically adjust ratios to balance costs.

Warning from Year-on-Year Highs: Cost Dividend Window Narrowing

Despite limited daily fluctuations, year-on-year data reveals a more important trend. Spandex surged 21.09%, acrylonitrile 22.92%, polyester FDY 15.82%, and PTA 13.22%. These cumulative increases have already outpaced most end-order quotations, squeezing profit margins for fabric and garment companies.

Industry experience suggests that when raw material year-on-year increases exceed 10% for over three months, a two-round price adjustment typically follows: first, fabric mills revise quotes to apparel brands; second, brands adjust retail prices. The first round is largely complete, while the second remains in negotiation.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Monitor whether acrylonitrile decline continues; if it breaks below 9,500 CNY/ton, consider locking in raw material costs for nylon fabric orders. - Cotton-based raw materials remain high year-on-year; adopt a staggered procurement strategy to avoid cost spikes from concentrated restocking. - Polyester staple fiber and DTY have declined for two consecutive days; moderately increase chemical fiber fabric procurement, but keep inventory cycles within 30 days.

For Foreign Trade Companies - When quoting export orders, incorporate year-on-year increases of PTA and cotton (13%-17%) into cost models and reserve a 5% price adjustment clause. - For European clients, prioritize polyester-based products to leverage the short-term raw material cost advantage and secure orders. - Monitor acrylonitrile chain price movements (e.g., acrylic yarn, blends); if declines persist, promote cost-effective alternatives to cotton in Southeast Asian markets.