The value of wool raw material imports surged over 34%, yet the volume remained nearly flat—China's customs data for the first five months of 2026 reveals a critical signal: international wool spot prices are climbing rapidly, and the cost pressure on domestic wool textile mills is far greater than the headline figures suggest.
Emerging Market Orders: Wool Tops Drive Exports
India and Turkey have become the two main engines driving China's wool top exports. In the first five months, exports of wool tops to India reached 9,086 tons, a year-on-year surge of 77.22%; exports to Turkey hit 1,165 tons, up 54.69%. This boom is no accident: textile supply chains in South Asia and the Middle East are expanding rapidly, especially with India's spinning capacity coming online, creating rigid demand for semi-finished wool tops.
By product category, wool and cashmere raw materials account for over 50% of exports, with growth rates of 5.11% and 6.97% respectively, outpacing overall export growth. This indicates that China's high-end natural fiber products continue to gain international recognition, particularly cashmere goods with their high value-added attributes.
However, a cautionary note: total exports in RMB terms reached only 30.23 billion yuan, down 1.01% year-on-year, while the USD-denominated figure of $4.35 billion grew 2.29%. This 'volume up, price down' pattern reflects dual pressures from RMB exchange rate fluctuations and global buyers' price negotiations. For exporters, order volumes are increasing, but unit margins may be eroding.
Raw Material Imports: Price Up, Volume Flat, Costs Passed Downstream
In contrast to moderate export growth, imports have surged. In the first five months, imports of wool textile raw materials and products reached $1.71 billion, up 26.65% year-on-year. Core raw materials—wool and semi-processed wool—accounted for $1.1 billion in import value, up 34.04%, but the import volume of 130,000 tons remained essentially flat.
'Price up, volume flat' is the key to understanding this data. The growth in import value is entirely driven by price increases, not by higher restocking volumes. This means the international wool spot market is in a seller's phase, with tighter supply or higher auction prices in major producing regions like Australia and New Zealand directly raising procurement costs for Chinese companies.
For domestic wool textile mills—especially midstream producers focused on cashmere processing or worsted fabrics—rising raw material costs will soon pass through to production. If downstream order prices cannot adjust accordingly, industry gross margins will face compression.
Domestic vs. Export Markets: Divergence Explained
Overall, total wool textile trade in the first five months reached $6.06 billion (RMB 42.1 billion), up 8.16% year-on-year, indicating a genuine recovery in sector sentiment. But the divergence between domestic and export markets is notable: export growth was just 2.29%, while import growth hit 26.65%.
This divergence reflects two different underlying logics. Export growth in emerging markets is a structural increment: the expansion of spinning capacity in India and Turkey is sustainable and unlikely to reverse in the short term, providing stable external demand for Chinese wool top processors. Import cost increases, however, are more cyclical, tied to global wool production, inventory cycles, and geopolitical logistics costs.
For buyers, it is crucial to distinguish between 'trend opportunities' and 'cyclical risks.' Emerging market order growth is a trend worth long-term positioning; rapid raw material cost increases may be a phase that can be hedged through futures contracts or long-term agreements.