Polyester POY Price Fluctuations: A New Normal Under Overcapacity and Weak Demand

On July 3, 2026, polyester POY (150D/48F semi-dull) market quotes showed clear divergence: Rongsheng Petrochemical in Hangzhou quoted 8,200 yuan/ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber in Shaoxing only quoted 8,050 yuan/ton. The 150 yuan/ton spread is unusual in a normal market. This is not a random fluctuation but a symptom of the new normal under overcapacity and weak demand.

Industrial Logic Behind Price Divergence

The price gap between Rongsheng and Juxing first reflects differences in regional industrial chain integration and logistics costs. Hangzhou, as a hub for chemical fiber clusters, often hosts companies with complete PTA-polyester integration, enabling better cost control. However, Rongsheng's higher quote suggests a pricing strategy focused on brand premium and long-term contract clients. In contrast, Juxing in Shaoxing likely relies more on spot markets, pricing closer to marginal cost to prioritize quick sales and cash flow.

A deeper cause is severe overcapacity in the polyester POY industry. Since 2025, China has added over 3 million tons of new polyester capacity, with POY accounting for about 40%. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in the first half of 2026, polyester POY output grew 8.5% year-on-year, but downstream weaving mill operating rates stood at only around 65%, 5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This supply-demand imbalance has pushed the price center downward, with industry average profits near breakeven.

Upstream and Downstream Transmission and Regional Responses

Price divergence means downstream weaving mills need more refined procurement strategies. For buyers, choosing lower-priced suppliers seems beneficial during a price downturn, but they must watch for quality fluctuations and supply stability. Large integrated companies like Rongsheng typically offer more reliable product quality and delivery guarantees, while smaller chemical fiber mills risk supply interruptions or quality degradation during raw material price swings.

For exporters, the current price environment presents both opportunities and challenges. China Customs data shows that in the first half of 2026, polyester POY exports grew 12% year-on-year, mainly to Vietnam, Bangladesh, and other Southeast Asian textile processing countries. Low prices enhance Chinese products' export competitiveness but also raise anti-dumping risks. In 2025, India initiated an anti-dumping investigation on Chinese polyester POY, and Turkey raised import tariffs in early 2026. Exporters must balance low-price volume strategies with compliance risks.

Industry Adjustment and Future Expectations

Historically, polyester POY prices hit a peak of 11,000 yuan/ton in 2018, then declined steadily. The current level around 8,000 yuan/ton is close to the 2016 trough. Industry data shows that the POY-raw material (PTA+MEG) spread is only 500-600 yuan/ton, far below the normal processing cost of 800-1,000 yuan/ton. This means some high-cost capacity has been forced to cut or halt production, and the industry is entering a deleveraging phase.

Over the next 3-6 months, polyester POY prices are expected to remain low and volatile. On one hand, crude oil price fluctuations may transmit through PTA to polyester; on the other, downstream textile and apparel export orders have not yet shown clear recovery. However, as old capacity exits and new capacity release slows, the supply-demand balance may gradually improve by early 2027.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Prioritize products from integrated leading companies (e.g., Rongsheng, Hengli, Tongkun). Although their quotes may be slightly higher, product quality stability and supply assurance are stronger. - Use the current low-price window to appropriately increase safety stock, but avoid overstocking—be wary of further price declines. - Establish partnerships with 2-3 suppliers from different regions to diversify single-supplier risk and leverage regional price spreads for comparison.

For Exporters - Monitor anti-dumping policy developments in target markets, especially India, Turkey, and the EU. Consider partnering with professional trade compliance firms to prepare origin certificates and cost calculations in advance. - Leverage low prices to explore emerging markets such as Africa and Middle Eastern textile processing zones, which are price-sensitive and have relatively low trade barriers. - Optimize product mix by shifting from plain POY to differentiated products (e.g., cationic dyeable, flame-retardant, antibacterial POY) to add value and reduce price war risks.