In early July, the domestic polyester filament market continued the calm trend that began in late June. Public industry data shows that the factory price for mainstream specification polyester DTY (150D/48F, AA grade) was concentrated around 9,300 RMB/ton, down slightly by about 0.2% from 9,318.75 RMB/ton on July 2. Companies like Kaishi Group maintained this price level, with a validity period of seven days. Behind this narrow fluctuation lies a highly divided expectation between upstream and downstream players regarding the future market direction.
Price Signals and Industrial Transmission
The 9,300 RMB/ton price is not an isolated figure. Reviewing recent data, prices for similar products were stable at 9,318.75 RMB/ton on July 1 and 2, while quotes from smaller manufacturers like Juxing Chemical Fiber were as low as 9,000 RMB/ton. This spread reveals two key points: first, there is a significant gap in cost control and bargaining power between leading companies and small-to-medium enterprises; second, the market has not formed a unified price expectation, leaving room for buyers to negotiate.
On the raw material side, fluctuations in PTA and MEG prices directly impact the production cost of polyester filaments. Current DTY prices are near their year-to-date lows, implying that some high-cost capacity has seen its profit margins squeezed, even facing losses. For weaving mills, this is a signal that the bottom range for raw material prices may be forming, but conditions are not yet ripe for large-scale bargain hunting.
The Real Temperature of Demand
The core reason for the narrow price range is a lack of incremental demand. Downstream, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has already shown a seasonal decline since late June, while grey fabric inventory accumulation has accelerated. Although there have been sporadic signs of recovery in terminal garment export orders, large and long-term orders remain insufficient, leading fabric procurement to focus on urgent, small-lot orders. Under this pattern, weaving mills show minimal willingness to stockpile raw materials, typically maintaining only 7-10 days of safety inventory to avoid additional capital occupation and price decline risks.
Notably, the 150D/48F specification DTY is mainly used in garment fabrics and linings, making its price trend highly correlated with the prosperity of end-consumption. The current 'K-shaped' consumption market—stable high-end demand but sluggish mass market—directly reflects the contraction in orders for mid-to-low-end fabrics. Therefore, the 9,300 RMB/ton price point is more of a defensive position supported by costs rather than an offensive position driven by demand.
Game Status in Regional Industrial Belts
Market sentiment varies significantly across key polyester filament production and sales regions like Xiaoshao, Shengze, and Changxing. Chemical fiber factories in the Xiaoshao area, benefiting from proximity to polyester raw material bases, have a slight cost advantage and maintain relatively firm quotes. In contrast, the weaving cluster in Shengze, with a higher proportion of export orders, is more price-sensitive and tends to push for lower purchase prices. This regional price divergence is likely to intensify the wait-and-see atmosphere in the short term.
Historically, July and August are traditional off-seasons for the textile industry, with high-temperature power curbs and worker rotations affecting some capacity. Although power curbs are less severe this year than in previous years, the weakness in demand makes the off-season effect more pronounced. It is expected that before late August, DTY prices will continue to consolidate narrowly within the 9,200-9,400 RMB/ton range. A breakout will require new drivers—either a significant increase in raw material costs or an unexpectedly strong recovery in end orders.