Textile Commodity Prices Diverge: Cotton Surges While Chemical Fibers Weaken

Cotton and chemical fiber prices have diverged sharply in the Chinese textile market during the 26th week of 2026 (June 29-July 3). According to industry monitoring data, cotton prices rose 2.34% week-on-week, while acrylic, polyester staple fiber, and PTA all fell between 1.54% and 2.96%. The overall weekly average change was -0.4%, but the structural divergence is far more significant than the headline figure.

Cotton's rally: logic and risks

Cotton prices climbed from 17,383.67 yuan/ton to 17,790.67 yuan/ton, with year-on-year growth expanding to 17.05%. This rally is not an isolated event. Over the past three months, cotton prices have steadily risen, driven by weather disruptions in Xinjiang, low global cotton inventory-to-consumption ratios, and restocking demand from cotton yarn mills. However, cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices remained flat at 23,400 yuan/ton and 24,725 yuan/ton, respectively, with year-on-year gains of only about 7%. This means spinning margins are being squeezed by upstream cotton costs. If end-user orders cannot absorb higher prices, cotton mills will face margin pressure.

Chemical fiber chain under pressure

Acrylic led the decline with a 2.96% weekly drop, falling from 10,133 yuan/ton to 9,833 yuan/ton, although it still shows a 22.92% year-on-year gain. Polyester staple fiber fell 2.21%, PTA dropped 1.54%, and polyester FDY declined 1.27%. The synchronized weakness points to softening upstream feedstock costs (PX and propylene) and rising inventory levels at polyester plants operating at high capacity. Notably, polyester yarn, DTY, and POY prices were flat or slightly lower, indicating that downstream weaving mills are not actively chasing lower prices—procurement remains need-based, with minimal speculative restocking.

Viscose, spandex, nylon: flat but telling

Viscose staple fiber (14,200 yuan/ton), spandex (29,666.67 yuan/ton), and various nylon grades (DTY 15,840, FDY 16,300, POY 13,650 yuan/ton) all recorded zero weekly change. On the surface, this suggests equilibrium, but each tells a different story. Viscose is up 9.06% year-on-year, yet downstream rayon yarn has only risen 3.17%, indicating weak demand absorption. Spandex has gained 21.09% year-on-year but has been stuck in a narrow range for weeks, signaling inventory buildup at factories. Nylon prices are relatively stable but have not tracked upstream caprolactam volatility, suggesting limited buyer acceptance of high prices.

Raw silk: the lone decliner

Raw silk was the only product with a year-on-year decline, falling 9.72%. Prices edged down from 426,600 yuan/ton to 426,000 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 0.14%. The silk market has been in a prolonged downturn due to weak export demand for silk garments and shrinking orders from key markets like India and Brazil. Low prices may eventually force silkworm farmers to reduce output, setting the stage for a future rebound. For traders, current prices are approaching cost levels in some producing regions, limiting further downside.

Practical recommendations

For buyers - Accelerate cotton procurement: With cotton prices rising but cotton yarn flat, lock in long-term contracts now to hedge against future mill price increases. - Delay bulk purchases of chemical fibers: Acrylic, polyester staple fiber, and PTA still have room to fall; adopt weekly rolling procurement until a bottom is confirmed. - Watch for silk opportunities: Prices are nearly 10% below last year; if export data improves, consider small-scale positioning.

For exporters - Build price flexibility into cotton textile contracts: Include raw material price adjustment clauses to protect margins as cotton costs rise. - Offer discounts on polyester and nylon products: Lower feedstock costs create room for competitive pricing in Southeast Asian markets. - Approach silk orders cautiously: With raw silk weak and demand sluggish, shorten payment terms and reduce inventory exposure.