Cotton and chemical fiber raw material prices are moving in opposite directions. According to publicly available industry data for the 26th week of 2026 (June 29 to July 3), only cotton lint posted a weekly increase among the textile bulk commodity price board, rising 2.34% to close at 17,790.67 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year gain of 17.05%. Meanwhile, seven chemical fiber chain products declined, led by acrylic fiber (-2.96%), polyester staple fiber (-2.21%), and PTA (-1.54%).
Cotton: Tight Supply-Demand Supports Independent Rally
Cotton was the only commodity to record positive growth this week, and its rise is not isolated. Although the prices of cotton yarn 21S and 32S were flat week-on-week, they rose 7.50% and 6.57% year-on-year respectively, indicating that downstream cotton spinning still has the capacity to absorb high-priced raw materials. Spandex prices were also flat weekly but surged 21.09% year-on-year, further confirming demand resilience in cotton spinning and elastic fiber sectors.
From an industrial transmission perspective, three factors support the cotton price rally: first, weather disruptions in Xinjiang cotton regions have lowered new-season production expectations; second, autumn-winter orders are gradually being placed, keeping cotton mill operating rates high; and third, imported cotton quotas remain tight, limiting spot market supply. This suggests cotton prices are likely to remain firm in the short term, forcing cotton yarn buyers to balance cost locking against the risk of a pullback.
Chemical Fiber Chain: Cost Collapse and Weak Demand
The broad decline in the chemical fiber chain is the week's most prominent feature. PTA fell 1.54% to 5,696.34 yuan/ton, polyester staple fiber dropped 2.21% to 7,255.83 yuan/ton, polyester FDY declined 1.27% to 8,436.67 yuan/ton, while polyester DTY and polyester yarn also fell 0.53% and 0.42% respectively. The only product that fell more than cotton rose was acrylic fiber, down 2.96% to 9,833.33 yuan/ton, though it still gained 22.92% year-on-year, indicating rapid retracement of earlier gains.
The core driver of this decline comes from upstream. International crude oil prices weakened in late June, dragging down naphtha and PX prices, which eroded PTA cost support. On the demand side, operating rates at Jiangsu-Zhejiang weaving mills fell seasonally in late June, with polyester filament yarn sales rates dropping below 50%, pushing inventory pressure back to raw material suppliers. Acrylic fiber's steepest decline also reflects expectations of new capacity: two new plants in Shandong and Zhejiang started production in Q2, shifting the supply-demand balance from tight to loose.
Notably, viscose staple fiber, rayon yarn, and nylon series products all held steady this week. Their pricing typically lags upstream raw material fluctuations, and with the current off-season, buyers and sellers are in wait-and-see mode, making price stagnation likely the near-term norm.
Signal of Profit Reallocation in the Supply Chain
This week's price divergence reveals a deeper trend: profits in the textile supply chain are being redistributed from intermediate links to upstream raw material suppliers and downstream brands. The strength of cotton and spandex shows that commodities with resource attributes or technological barriers command stronger pricing power. In contrast, bulk chemical fibers like polyester and acrylic fiber, amid an expansionary capacity cycle, are seeing processing margins continuously compressed.
For downstream weaving and garment companies, price divergence means procurement strategies must be differentiated. Cotton businesses should be wary of a potential high-level correction, but with spot supply tight, room for aggressive price negotiation is limited. Chemical fiber companies face pressure from falling raw material costs, raising the risk of finished product inventory depreciation.