Polyester POY prices are approaching the psychological barrier of 8,000 yuan per ton. On July 3, 2026, Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 8,200 yuan/ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 8,050 yuan/ton, both marking recent lows. These levels represent a significant year-on-year decline, signaling a profound adjustment in the chemical fiber industry.
Price Transmission: A Chain Reaction from Raw Materials to Fabrics
Polyester POY is a core raw material for weaving, and its price fluctuations directly impact the cost of grey fabrics and finished textiles. The current quotation range for 150D/48F semi-dull POY is approaching the cash cost line for some small and medium enterprises. Rongsheng Petrochemical's 8,200 yuan/ton quote serves as a bellwether, while Juxing Chemical Fiber's 8,050 yuan/ton in Shaoxing reflects intensified regional competition.
From a supply chain perspective, lower POY prices will compress profit margins for DTY and FDY, subsequently affecting weaving mills. For buyers, current prices offer short-term cost benefits, but they must guard against inventory depreciation risks if prices fall further.
Regional Reactions: Divergence in Zhejiang's Two Major Chemical Fiber Clusters
The data clearly outlines the current state of Zhejiang's two major chemical fiber belts. Rongsheng's price in Hangzhou is 150 yuan/ton higher than Juxing's in Shaoxing—a gap driven not solely by cost differences but more by divergent inventory pressures and sales strategies.
Shaoxing, one of China's largest chemical fiber production bases, is densely populated with small and medium enterprises, leading to fiercer price competition. Juxing's 8,050 yuan/ton quote may indicate that local firms are already selling at a loss to free up cash. Hangzhou's prices show relatively stronger resilience due to the scale advantages of leading enterprises and product mix differences, but the overall trend remains dragged down by the broader market.
Industry Logic: The Inevitable Outcome of Overcapacity
The POY price drop below 8,200 yuan/ton is essentially a manifestation of overcapacity. Between 2024 and 2026, new polyester filament capacity continued to expand in China, while end-use textile and apparel demand grew weakly domestically, and export markets were hampered by overseas inventory cycles and trade barriers. Under supply-demand imbalance, price wars have become a means of industry consolidation.
At current price levels, large integrated enterprises (like Rongsheng) can still sustain operations due to their complete PX-PTA-polyester filament chain, offsetting downstream losses with upstream profits. However, for numerous small firms solely engaged in POY spinning, 8,000 yuan/ton is near their cash cost line, and some may face production cuts or shutdowns.
Outlook: When Will the Bottom Appear?
In the short term, POY prices still have room to fall. Downstream weaving mills generally adopt a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy, with low restocking willingness. If demand continues to weaken during the traditional July-August off-season, POY prices may breach 8,000 yuan/ton. However, two variables warrant attention: whether upstream PTA prices can stabilize, and whether large-scale production cuts occur in the industry.
Historical cycles show that each price downturn forces the exit of outdated capacity, but the depth and duration of this adjustment may exceed expectations. Industry participants are advised to abandon bottom-fishing mindsets and focus on cash flow management and inventory risk control.