In early July, polyester DTY prices weakened again. Kaishi Group's July 3 quotation showed 150D/48F semi-dull low-elastic polyester DTY (AA grade) at 9,300 yuan per ton, down about 18.75 yuan per ton from the industry benchmark of 9,318.75 yuan per ton on July 2, a 0.2% decline. Behind this seemingly small fluctuation lies the intense supply-demand contradiction in the chemical fiber industry chain.
Industry Background
Polyester DTY, as a key raw material for textile fabrics, directly reflects the tug-of-war between upstream polyester and downstream weaving. Kaishi Group's quotation serves as a market benchmark. Recent data shows that Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 9,000 yuan per ton for similar products on July 1, indicating widening price gaps among suppliers and intensifying competition.
The core challenge facing the chemical fiber industry is that capacity expansion far outpaces demand growth. Since 2025, new polyester filament capacity has been continuously added in China, while end-market orders for apparel and home textiles have been sluggish due to global economic slowdown. This supply-demand mismatch is clearly reflected in prices: DTY has gradually declined from around 9,500 yuan per ton at the start of the year to below 9,300 yuan in early July.
Industry Impact
For downstream weaving mills, lower raw material prices provide temporary cost relief. However, the more significant concern is that persistent price declines may trigger a 'wait-and-see' attitude, slowing inventory turnover. Feedback from industrial clusters in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing, Zhejiang, indicates DTY inventories have risen 5%-8% month-on-month, prompting some mills to adopt production cuts to support prices.
For upstream PTA and MEG sectors, DTY price declines directly compress polyester plant margins. The processing spread from polyester chip to DTY has narrowed to around 1,200 yuan per ton, below the industry's average breakeven level. Further price drops could force small and medium-sized polyester enterprises to reduce or halt production.
From an export perspective, exchange rate fluctuations and weak overseas orders have limited the price advantage of Chinese polyester DTY. From January to May 2025, China's polyester filament export volume grew only 3% year-on-year, far below capacity growth. The recovery of Southeast Asia's textile industry has diverted some orders, requiring domestic chemical fiber companies to more precisely match overseas buyers' quality and delivery requirements.
Outlook
In the short term, polyester DTY prices will likely remain weak and volatile. On the cost side, international oil prices fluctuate in the $70-75 per barrel range, and PX prices are relatively firm, providing some support for PTA and limiting DTY's downside. However, on the demand side, the traditional off-season in July-August may further lower weaving mill operating rates, leaving little momentum for price rebounds.
In the medium to long term, industry consolidation is inevitable. Companies with advantages in cost control and product differentiation (e.g., recycled polyester, functional DTY) will survive the price war and expand market share.