The spot price of polyester POY (150D/48F semi-dull) showed divergence on July 3: Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 8,200 yuan/ton, while Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 8,050 yuan/ton, a spread of 150 yuan/ton. This price level has retreated approximately 200-300 yuan/ton from the peak in mid-June, indicating that the chemical fiber raw material side is facing a new round of destocking pressure.
Supply-Demand Logic Behind Price Divergence
The two sample companies are located in Hangzhou and Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, both core areas for polyester filament production. Rongsheng, as an industry leader, quoted 8,200 yuan/ton, slightly above the market average, reflecting large mills' willingness to support prices under cost pressure. In contrast, Juxing's 8,050 yuan/ton is closer to actual transaction prices for small and medium enterprises, suggesting some manufacturers have begun to cut prices to accelerate sales.
According to industry public data, current POY inventory days have rebounded to 15-18 days, an increase of 3-5 days from May. The operating rate of downstream weaving mills remains around 70%, but new orders are mainly short-term and small-volume, leading to a 'buy-as-needed' approach with low stockpiling willingness. This 'buy on rising, avoid on falling' mentality is amplified during price downturns, forcing POY factories to adjust their pricing strategies.
Transmission Effects on the Upstream and Downstream Chain
The loosening of POY prices will first directly transmit to the downstream DTY (drawn textured yarn) segment. Based on normal processing fees, the theoretical cost range for DTY under current POY prices is 9,500-9,800 yuan/ton, while actual DTY market transaction prices have already fallen below the 10,000 yuan/ton mark. This means DTY factory profit margins have been squeezed to thin or even loss-making levels, and some small texturing mills have begun to cut production or schedule maintenance shutdowns.
For fabric traders, lower POY prices imply that grey fabric costs may decrease simultaneously. However, the textile industry is currently in a traditional off-season, with terminal apparel brand orders not yet released, so traders prefer to wait and see rather than replenish inventory. This simultaneous wait-and-see attitude up and down the chain has trapped the chemical fiber industry in a negative feedback loop of 'the more prices fall, the weaker demand becomes'.
Differentiated Performance in Regional Industrial Clusters
Shaoxing and Hangzhou, the focal points of this price report, have market trends that serve as important bellwethers. The Shaoxing area is dominated by small and medium chemical fiber enterprises with fierce competition and greater price elasticity; while Hangzhou's polyester giants, with their scale and raw material self-sufficiency advantages, retain more bargaining power in price negotiations. This regional pricing difference will directly impact the procurement decisions of surrounding weaving clusters such as Xiaoshan and Changxing.
Nationally, the POY price correction has not yet triggered panic selling. However, if demand remains sluggish through mid-to-late July, some factories may resort to maintenance shutdowns or reduced operating rates to passively control supply. At that point, POY prices could further decline to the 7,800-8,000 yuan/ton range.