China's wool textile industry is undergoing a quiet structural transformation. Customs data for the first five months of 2026 reveals two seemingly contradictory yet mutually reinforcing trends: import growth (26.65%) is ten times that of exports (2.29%), while wool top exports to India and Turkey have surged by over 50%. This is not a simple reversal of the trade surplus, but a signal of industrial chain reconfiguration and global wool supply flows shifting.
Import Surge: Restocking Driven by Price
Wool textile raw material and product imports reached USD 1.71 billion, up 26.65% YoY. Wool and semi-processed wool imports alone hit USD 1.10 billion, surging 34.04%, yet volume stayed flat at 130,000 tons. This means the increase is almost entirely price-driven. For domestic mills, this is both a cost pressure and a signal to stock up—locking in supply during a price uptrend reflects solid downstream demand.
Geographically, Australia and New Zealand remain top sources, but shares from South Africa and South America are creeping up. Diversification of global wool supply is weakening traditional suppliers' pricing power and giving Chinese buyers more bargaining room.
Export Divergence: Finished Goods Stable, Semi-Finished Hot
Exports show clear category divergence. Finished products (cashmere sweaters, wool fabrics) reached USD 4.35 billion, up only 2.29% (down 1.01% in RMB terms). But wool and cashmere raw material exports grew 5.11% and 6.97% respectively, with cashmere's high-value advantage intact. The real driver is semi-finished goods—wool tops.
Exports to India hit 9,086 tons, up 77.22%; to Turkey 1,165 tons, up 54.69%. Both markets share a common trait: rapid textile capacity expansion but insufficient upstream scouring and combing capabilities, forcing reliance on Chinese semi-finished imports. India is emerging as a new textile manufacturing hub, with yarn and fabric demand for wool tops growing exponentially; Turkey, leveraging its geographic proximity, serves European fast-fashion orders with equally strong semi-finished demand.
Emerging Markets Rise: From Finished Goods to Intermediates
This shift has profound implications. Previously, China exported mostly finished garments and fabrics directly to Western brands, facing volatile orders and squeezed margins. Now, exporting wool tops to India and Turkey positions China as an intermediate goods supplier—reducing exposure to end-market fluctuations and locking in stable processing margins.
But risks remain: the wool top export boom hinges on downstream capacity expansion in emerging markets. If India or Turkey slows textile investment or builds local scouring capacity, Chinese semi-finished exports could quickly decline. Companies must guard against over-concentration risk.